Valuation Lens — August 31, 2026

China and real estate screen cheaper; U.S. equities remain expensive

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

August 31, 2026Data cutoff Aug 31, 2026, 9:15 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.04%1y Treasury

The 1Y Treasury yields 4.04% on an investment basis, while the 10Y nominal and real yields are 4.99% and 2.42%, respectively.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.4%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.4
Cheap
Median fair value
112.098.0–126.0
Upside to median
+12.0%
1y modeled
+9.0%-20.0% to 40.0%
vs Treasury
+5.0%
Real EstateVNQ
+1.2
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
109.098.0–121.0
Upside to median
+9.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-13.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
108.096.0–122.0
Upside to median
+8.0%
1y modeled
+8.5%-18.0% to 37.0%
vs Treasury
+4.5%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.098.0–107.5
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-5.0% to 13.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
MetalsGLD
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.093.0–119.0
Upside to median
+5.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-25.0% to 40.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.096.0–110.0
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-15.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
EnergyUSO
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
102.090.0–115.0
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-28.0% to 45.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
110.076.0–151.0
Upside to median
+10.0%
1y modeled
+10.0%-55.0% to 105.0%
vs Treasury
+6.0%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.091.0–105.0
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-16.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-0.8
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.090.0–103.0
Upside to median
-4.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-14.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.5
Exceptionally expensive
Median fair value
87.080.0–94.0
Upside to median
-13.0%
1y modeled
+4.0%-19.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
-0.0%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-08-31, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.4 Cheap	112.0 98.0–126.0	+12.0%	+9.0% -20.0% to 40.0%	+5.0%
Real Estate VNQ	+1.2 Somewhat cheap	109.0 98.0–121.0	+9.0%	+7.5% -13.0% to 27.0%	+3.5%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	108.0 96.0–122.0	+8.0%	+8.5% -18.0% to 37.0%	+4.5%
Fixed Income BND	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	103.0 98.0–107.5	+3.0%	+5.5% -5.0% to 13.0%	+1.5%
Metals GLD	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	105.0 93.0–119.0	+5.0%	+6.5% -25.0% to 40.0%	+2.5%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	102.0 96.0–110.0	+2.0%	+7.0% -15.0% to 30.0%	+3.0%
Energy USO	+0.3 Fair	102.0 90.0–115.0	+2.0%	+5.5% -28.0% to 45.0%	+1.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.3 Fair	110.0 76.0–151.0	+10.0%	+10.0% -55.0% to 105.0%	+6.0%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	97.0 91.0–105.0	-3.0%	+5.5% -16.0% to 28.0%	+1.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-0.8 Somewhat expensive	96.0 90.0–103.0	-4.0%	+5.0% -14.0% to 25.0%	+1.0%
US Equities SPY	-2.5 Exceptionally expensive	87.0 80.0–94.0	-13.0%	+4.0% -19.0% to 23.0%	-0.0%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.4Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 26.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+1.2Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 30.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 61%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 45%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 61.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-0.8Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 63.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.5Exceptionally expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 91.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 8% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 80%

Sources10

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet
2
MSCI China Index
MSCI
3
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
4
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
5
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) ex China Index
MSCI
6
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
MSCI
7
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker
Nareit
8
Gold Market Commentary: Making waves
World Gold Council
9
Oil Market Report - August 2026
International Energy Agency
10
BTC MVRV by Age Chart
Glassnode

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-08-31_valuation-lens_211551-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.