Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 37.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $72.54
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.2%
- Median
- +4.9%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
79% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Valuation-aware 1Y scenario model combining cash yield/carry, sustainable fundamental growth, a conservative fraction of valuation convergence and institutional long-run priors; recent returns excluded.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +7.2%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- +3.6%
- P10
- +2.0%
Three-year annualized scenario blend of current cash yield/carry, sustainable growth, gradual valuation normalization and institutional long-run return priors.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.02%
- Expected excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred investment-basis one-year hurdle; the expected-return edge is modeled and is not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $72.54 | +4.9% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $83.13 | +4.9% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $93.23 | +4.9% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $82.04 | +4.9% |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $107.44 | +4.9% |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $106.73 | +4.9% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $79.87 | +4.9% |