Valuation Lens — August 27, 2026

Bonds and China screen cheaper while U.S. equities remain stretched

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

August 27, 2026Data cutoff Aug 27, 2026, 5:30 PM EDTintraday

The hurdle to beat

4.02%1y Treasury

The preferred 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.02%, with the 10Y nominal yield at 4.66% and the 10Y real yield at 2.34% as of August 26.

10y Treasury: 4.7%
10y real: 2.3%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.098.0–105.0
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+4.9%-4.0% to 12.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesFXI
+0.8
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
108.093.1–123.9
Upside to median
+8.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-26.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
103.090.1–116.9
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+3.5%-28.0% to 33.0%
vs Treasury
-0.5%
MetalsGLD
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
103.088.1–119.9
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+5.8%-27.0% to 42.0%
vs Treasury
+1.8%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
88.069.1–115.9
Upside to median
-12.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-48.0% to 76.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.086.0–105.9
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+4.1%-19.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+0.1%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.087.0–104.0
Upside to median
-6.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-18.0% to 27.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
EnergyUSO
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
92.082.0–105.9
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+4.8%-30.0% to 40.0%
vs Treasury
+0.8%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.085.0–102.0
Upside to median
-7.0%
1y modeled
+4.5%-21.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
87.078.0–97.0
Upside to median
-13.0%
1y modeled
+4.2%-20.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+0.2%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.4
Exceptionally expensive
Median fair value
80.069.1–90.9
Upside to median
-20.0%
1y modeled
+3.4%-16.0% to 20.0%
vs Treasury
-0.6%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-08-27, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	102.0 98.0–105.0	+2.0%	+4.9% -4.0% to 12.0%	+0.9%
China & Hong Kong Equities FXI	+0.8 Somewhat cheap	108.0 93.1–123.9	+8.0%	+7.0% -26.0% to 38.0%	+3.0%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.3 Fair	103.0 90.1–116.9	+3.0%	+3.5% -28.0% to 33.0%	-0.5%
Metals GLD	+0.3 Fair	103.0 88.1–119.9	+3.0%	+5.8% -27.0% to 42.0%	+1.8%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	88.0 69.1–115.9	-12.0%	+6.0% -48.0% to 76.0%	+2.0%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	95.0 86.0–105.9	-5.0%	+4.1% -19.0% to 25.0%	+0.1%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	94.0 87.0–104.0	-6.0%	+5.0% -18.0% to 27.0%	+1.0%
Energy USO	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	92.0 82.0–105.9	-8.0%	+4.8% -30.0% to 40.0%	+0.8%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.0 85.0–102.0	-7.0%	+4.5% -21.0% to 28.0%	+0.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.7 Expensive	87.0 78.0–97.0	-13.0%	+4.2% -20.0% to 26.0%	+0.2%
US Equities SPY	-2.4 Exceptionally expensive	80.0 69.1–90.9	-20.0%	+3.4% -16.0% to 20.0%	-0.6%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 37.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

FXI · China Large-Cap

+0.8Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 36.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 44.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 44.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 60.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 61.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 65.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.4Exceptionally expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 90.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 10% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 48%Historical base rate: 80%

Sources19

1
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
State Street Global Advisors
2
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet
3
Guide to the Markets - Europe
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
4
Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts
Vanguard
5
Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO)
Vanguard
6
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK)
Vanguard
7
iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)
BlackRock iShares
8
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
BlackRock iShares
9
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
BlackRock iShares
10
iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS)
BlackRock iShares
11
iShares MSCI New Zealand ETF (ENZL)
BlackRock iShares
12
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
Vanguard
13
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Vanguard
14
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
15
Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
16
Today in Energy Daily Prices - August 27, 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
17
BTC MVRV by PnL
Glassnode
18
2026 Asia Mid-Year Outlook
J.P. Morgan Private Bank
19
Where to find value in the U.S. markets
Vanguard

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-08-27_valuation-lens_173000-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.