Fixed Income
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 38.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $72.58
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-26
92/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +9.0%
- P75
- +6.8%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +3.2%
- P10
- +1.5%
95% of modeled scenarios end positive.
blended_income_growth_partial_valuation_convergence_and_institutional_prior
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +7.4%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- +4.9%
- P25
- +3.8%
- P10
- +2.2%
blended_medium_horizon_fundamental_carry_and_partial_valuation_normalization
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.01%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $72.58 | +5.0% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $79.90 | +5.0% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $93.32 | +5.0% |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $106.78 | +5.0% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $82.05 | +5.0% |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $107.51 | +5.0% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $83.30 | +5.0% |