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CXProWealth

Valuation Lens — August 26, 2026

China and Europe look cheap; U.S. equities remain expensive

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Data cutoff intraday
The hurdle to beat
4.01%1y Treasury

The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.01% DGS1 investment-basis Treasury yield, with the 10-year nominal yield at 4.64% and 10-year real yield at 2.32%.

10y Treasury
4.6%
10y real
2.3%
Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market
+2.0Cheap
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 16.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 84% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market
+1.9Cheap
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 18.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market
+1.9Cheap
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 19.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 81% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
+1.9Cheap
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 18.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market
+0.7Somewhat cheap
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 64%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate
+0.7Somewhat cheap
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market
+0.5Somewhat cheap
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold
0.0Fair
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 50.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin
-0.8Somewhat expensive
306090120150180210FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 63.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil
-1.2Somewhat expensive
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index
-2.0Expensive
406080100120140160180200FAIRMARKET
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 83.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 80%
Sources15
  1. 1
    S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
    FactSet
  2. 2
    MSCI China Index
    MSCI
  3. 3
    MSCI Japan Index
    MSCI
  4. 4
    MSCI Australia Index
    MSCI
  5. 5
    MSCI Emerging Markets Index
    MSCI
  6. 6
    MSCI Europe Index
    MSCI
  7. 7
    Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF
    Vanguard
  8. 8
    MSCI World Real Estate Index
    MSCI
  9. 9
    Nareit REIT Industry Tracker
    Nareit
  10. 10
    REIT Industry Financial Snapshot — July 2026
    Nareit
  11. 11
    Short-Term Energy Outlook — August 2026
    U.S. Energy Information Administration
  12. 12
    Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point break
    World Gold Council
  13. 13
    BTC MVRV by Age Chart
    Glassnode
  14. 14
    Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts — July 2026
    Vanguard
  15. 15
    MSCI World Index
    MSCI
Methodology
cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version
3.4.0
Run ID
2026-08-26_valuation-lens_210328-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.