Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 29.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $72.37
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-24
91/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
79% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario total-return model using economic-output/carry assumptions plus partial valuation convergence; short-horizon momentum is excluded.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +6.5%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- +1.0%
Three-year annualized scenario model with partial valuation normalization and asset-specific income/growth economics.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.03%
- Expected excess
- +1.2%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the current investment-basis annual hurdle; the expected-return edge is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $72.37 | +5.2% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $82.56 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $93.01 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $82.00 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $107.25 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $106.18 | — |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $79.70 | — |