Valuation Lens — August 24, 2026

Selective value in bonds and China contrasts with expensive U.S. equities and energy

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

August 24, 2026Data cutoff Aug 24, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.03%1y Treasury

The preferred 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.03%, while the 10Y Treasury yield is 4.74% and the 10Y real yield is 2.40%.

10y Treasury: 4.7%
10y real: 2.4%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+1.2
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.099.0–109.0
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+5.2%-4.0% to 12.0%
vs Treasury
+1.2%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
108.090.2–121.9
Upside to median
+8.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-30.0% to 42.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
Real EstateVNQ
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.095.1–111.9
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-20.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.094.1–110.9
Upside to median
+2.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-16.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
105.075.3–144.6
Upside to median
+5.0%
1y modeled
+10.0%-55.0% to 105.0%
vs Treasury
+6.0%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-0.6
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.090.1–104.9
Upside to median
-3.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-18.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
MetalsGLD
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.084.1–105.9
Upside to median
-6.0%
1y modeled
+3.0%-28.0% to 35.0%
vs Treasury
-1.0%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.089.1–102.9
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+4.0%-19.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
0.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
90.082.1–98.9
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+2.5%-28.0% to 32.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
84.075.1–95.9
Upside to median
-16.0%
1y modeled
-4.0%-35.0% to 42.0%
vs Treasury
-8.0%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
88.082.1–95.9
Upside to median
-12.0%
1y modeled
+2.5%-18.0% to 18.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-08-24, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+1.2 Somewhat cheap	104.0 99.0–109.0	+4.0%	+5.2% -4.0% to 12.0%	+1.2%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	108.0 90.2–121.9	+8.0%	+7.5% -30.0% to 42.0%	+3.5%
Real Estate VNQ	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	103.0 95.1–111.9	+3.0%	+6.5% -20.0% to 30.0%	+2.5%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	102.0 94.1–110.9	+2.0%	+6.5% -16.0% to 24.0%	+2.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.3 Fair	105.0 75.3–144.6	+5.0%	+10.0% -55.0% to 105.0%	+6.0%
Japan Equities EWJ	-0.6 Somewhat expensive	97.0 90.1–104.9	-3.0%	+5.0% -18.0% to 25.0%	+1.0%
Metals GLD	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	94.0 84.1–105.9	-6.0%	+3.0% -28.0% to 35.0%	-1.0%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	95.0 89.1–102.9	-5.0%	+4.0% -19.0% to 25.0%	0.0%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.6 Expensive	90.0 82.1–98.9	-10.0%	+2.5% -28.0% to 32.0%	-1.5%
Energy USO	-1.7 Expensive	84.0 75.1–95.9	-16.0%	-4.0% -35.0% to 42.0%	-8.0%
US Equities SPY	-2.0 Expensive	88.0 82.1–95.9	-12.0%	+2.5% -18.0% to 18.0%	-1.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.2Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 29.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–260 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–230 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-0.6Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 41% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 62.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 48%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 65.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 41%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 83.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 80%

Sources15

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet
2
Where to find value in the U.S. markets
Vanguard
3
Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts
Vanguard
4
Guide to the Markets - Asia
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
5
Back on the radar: The case for European equities
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
6
Five reasons why the opportunity of emerging markets & Asia Pacific equities persists into 2026
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
7
Active Fixed Income Perspectives Q3 2026: Finding higher ground
Vanguard
8
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker Q2 2026
Nareit
9
2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth
Nareit
10
Gold Demand Trends Q1 2026 press release
World Gold Council
11
Central Banks Gold Reserves Survey 2026 press release
World Gold Council
12
Short-Term Energy Outlook - August 2026
U.S. Energy Information Administration
13
Oil Market Report - August 2026
International Energy Agency
14
Q3 2026 Signals Report
Fidelity Digital Assets
15
Market Capitalization - MVRV metric definition
Coin Metrics

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-08-24_valuation-lens_235959-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.