Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 44.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.9
- Upside to median
- +0.9%
- Last close
- $72.28
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +4.9%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
78% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield/carry anchored to BND YTM, with duration and yield/spread-change scenarios; current Treasury curve and credit spreads constrain the distribution.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.8%
- P75
- +6.2%
- Median
- +4.6%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- +1.0%
Starting yield/carry anchored to BND YTM, with duration and yield/spread-change scenarios; current Treasury curve and credit spreads constrain the distribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.03%
- Expected excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year annual-return hurdle; expected excess is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.3Fair | 100.9 | $72.28 | +4.9% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | +0.3Fair | 100.9 | $79.61 | +4.9% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +0.3Fair | 100.9 | $92.96 | +4.9% |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | +0.3Fair | 100.9 | $106.12 | +4.9% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.3Fair | 100.9 | $81.92 | +4.9% |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | +0.3Fair | 100.9 | $106.92 | +4.9% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +0.3Fair | 100.9 | $82.11 | +4.9% |