Valuation Lens — August 12, 2026

China screens cheaper while U.S. and emerging-market equities remain expensive

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

August 12, 2026Data cutoff Aug 12, 2026, 11:59 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.03%1y Treasury

The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.03% investment-basis Treasury yield, with positive real yields keeping discount-rate discipline important.

10y Treasury: 4.7%
10y real: 2.4%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.9
Cheap
Median fair value
112.0103.4–118.6
Upside to median
+12.0%
1y modeled
+8.0%-20.0% to 39.0%
vs Treasury
+4.0%
Real EstateVNQ
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
107.199.0–112.8
Upside to median
+7.1%
1y modeled
+6.5%-18.0% to 31.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.598.0–109.4
Upside to median
+4.5%
1y modeled
+7.0%-15.0% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
100.998.9–102.4
Upside to median
+0.9%
1y modeled
+4.9%-4.0% to 11.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
MetalsGLD
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
101.892.3–111.1
Upside to median
+1.8%
1y modeled
+5.0%-24.0% to 39.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
106.486.0–126.4
Upside to median
+6.4%
1y modeled
+11.0%-48.0% to 82.0%
vs Treasury
+7.0%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.094.0–105.1
Upside to median
+0.0%
1y modeled
+5.5%-17.0% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.289.3–103.7
Upside to median
-2.8%
1y modeled
+4.5%-16.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.4
Expensive
Median fair value
93.684.2–102.5
Upside to median
-6.4%
1y modeled
+2.5%-30.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
Emerging Markets EquitiesEMXC
-2.2
Expensive
Median fair value
86.981.0–94.9
Upside to median
-13.1%
1y modeled
+4.0%-25.0% to 36.0%
vs Treasury
-0.0%
US EquitiesSPY
-2.3
Exceptionally expensive
Median fair value
89.383.4–97.8
Upside to median
-10.7%
1y modeled
+5.0%-18.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-08-12, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.9 Cheap	112.0 103.4–118.6	+12.0%	+8.0% -20.0% to 39.0%	+4.0%
Real Estate VNQ	+1.1 Somewhat cheap	107.1 99.0–112.8	+7.1%	+6.5% -18.0% to 31.0%	+2.5%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	104.5 98.0–109.4	+4.5%	+7.0% -15.0% to 29.0%	+3.0%
Fixed Income BND	+0.3 Fair	100.9 98.9–102.4	+0.9%	+4.9% -4.0% to 11.0%	+0.9%
Metals GLD	+0.2 Fair	101.8 92.3–111.1	+1.8%	+5.0% -24.0% to 39.0%	+1.0%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.2 Fair	106.4 86.0–126.4	+6.4%	+11.0% -48.0% to 82.0%	+7.0%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.1 Fair	100.0 94.0–105.1	+0.0%	+5.5% -17.0% to 29.0%	+1.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	97.2 89.3–103.7	-2.8%	+4.5% -16.0% to 26.0%	+0.5%
Energy USO	-1.4 Expensive	93.6 84.2–102.5	-6.4%	+2.5% -30.0% to 38.0%	-1.5%
Emerging Markets Equities EMXC	-2.2 Expensive	86.9 81.0–94.9	-13.1%	+4.0% -25.0% to 36.0%	-0.0%
US Equities SPY	-2.3 Exceptionally expensive	89.3 83.4–97.8	-10.7%	+5.0% -18.0% to 25.0%	+1.0%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.9Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 18.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 82% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

+1.1Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 31.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 44.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 0–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.4Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 73.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 48%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

EMXC · Emerging Markets Ex-China

-2.2Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 86.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 14% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-2.3Exceptionally expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 88.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 11% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 80%

Sources18

1
Equity market outlook
BlackRock
2
Short-Term Energy Outlook: Global oil markets
U.S. Energy Information Administration
3
Trigger Happy
Glassnode
4
Values Increase 5% over the Past 12 Months
Green Street
5
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC)
iShares / BlackRock
6
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
iShares / BlackRock
7
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
iShares / BlackRock
8
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI)
iShares / BlackRock
9
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker
Nareit
10
Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision
Reserve Bank of Australia
11
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)
State Street Global Advisors
12
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Vanguard
13
Our economic outlook for China
Vanguard
14
Vanguard Capital Markets Model forecasts
Vanguard
15
Where to find value in the U.S. markets
Vanguard
16
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK)
Vanguard
17
Central Banks - Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
18
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-08-12_valuation-lens_055907-utc

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.