Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 40.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $71.54
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-06
79/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.7%
- P75
- +8.7%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +1.9%
- P10
- -1.1%
86% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield (~4.9%, estimated from the Treasury curve plus investment-grade spread) plus a small duration gain from partial convergence toward median fair value, with a 5-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.8%
- P75
- +6.4%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +3.6%
- P10
- +2.0%
Starting yield as the main anchor with price effects amortised over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; the edge is small relative to duration risk.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $71.54 | +5.3% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.23 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.82 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.53 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.60 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.27 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.85 | — |