Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 39.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.2
- Upside to median
- +1.2%
- Last close
- $71.33
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-02
76/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.8%
- P75
- +9.2%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -1.6%
83% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity (about 5.4% after October's rally) plus partial price convergence toward fair yield, with dispersion from a 5.74-year duration and yield-change volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.6%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +3.8%
- P10
- +2.0%
Starting yield as the dominant anchor; price effects from yield changes largely offset by reinvestment over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +1.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled expected edge over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. Core bonds add duration risk for a modest pickup.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 101.2 | $71.33 | +5.6% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.50 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.73 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.46 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.40 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.71 | — |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.89 | — |