Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 40.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $71.19
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.2%
- P75
- +7.8%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +3.2%
- P10
- +0.5%
92% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting-yield carry (SEC yield and yield to maturity blend about 5.3%) plus duration-scaled yield-change scenarios and a spread-widening drag on the corporate share; probabilities read from the modeled return quantiles.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +7.4%
- P75
- +6.4%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +4.3%
- P10
- +3.2%
Starting yield as the dominant anchor for a portfolio with about 5.7 years of duration, adjusted for reinvestment and modest credit losses.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $71.19 | +5.6% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.59 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.85 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.07 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.47 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $106.26 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.99 | — |