Fixed Income
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 23.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 76% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.1
- Upside to median
- +3.1%
- Last close
- $71.40
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-21
80/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +13.1%
- P75
- +9.4%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +1.4%
- P10
- -2.3%
82% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting-yield carry (about 5.0% aggregate yield) plus modest duration gain from partial yield normalization, less expected credit losses; 1-year dispersion from duration-scaled yield volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.7%
- P75
- +7.6%
- Median
- +5.2%
- P25
- +2.8%
- P10
- +0.7%
Starting-yield anchor with partial yield mean reversion over three years; dispersion narrows as carry dominates.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +1.6Cheap | 103.1 | $71.40 | +5.4% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $78.68 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $91.15 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $105.09 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.29 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.68 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.80 | — |