Valuation Lens — September 4, 2026
Emerging markets look cheapest as U.S. equities remain expensive
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.11% DGS1 Treasury yield, with a 4.77% 10-year nominal yield and 2.42% 10-year real yield.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.8%
- 10y real
- 2.4%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +2.7Exceptionally cheap
- Median fair value
- 115.5107.6–121.2
- Upside to median
- +15.5%
- 1y modeled
- +9.2%-5.1% to 21.9%
- vs Treasury
- +5.1%
- +2.6Exceptionally cheap
- Median fair value
- 116.7108.5–123.5
- Upside to median
- +16.7%
- 1y modeled
- +10.5%-3.7% to 25.1%
- vs Treasury
- +6.4%
- +1.6Cheap
- Median fair value
- 106.8100.1–111.6
- Upside to median
- +6.8%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-4.7% to 18.4%
- vs Treasury
- +2.9%
- +1.2Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 105.098.4–110.2
- Upside to median
- +5.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-4.2% to 17.2%
- vs Treasury
- +2.4%
- +1.0Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.296.3–108.0
- Upside to median
- +2.2%
- 1y modeled
- +5.2%-5.4% to 15.7%
- vs Treasury
- +1.1%
- MetalsGLD+0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.893.9–111.5
- Upside to median
- +2.8%
- 1y modeled
- +2.3%-14.1% to 19.1%
- vs Treasury
- -1.8%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.498.8–102.0
- Upside to median
- +0.4%
- 1y modeled
- +5.4%1.7% to 8.9%
- vs Treasury
- +1.3%
- Real EstateVNQ-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.994.0–105.1
- Upside to median
- -0.1%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-6.8% to 16.8%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 94.976.4–111.3
- Upside to median
- -5.1%
- 1y modeled
- -0.8%-34.9% to 33.6%
- vs Treasury
- -4.9%
- EnergyUSO-2.4Exceptionally expensive
- Median fair value
- 85.677.2–93.7
- Upside to median
- -14.4%
- 1y modeled
- -2.5%-21.4% to 16.1%
- vs Treasury
- -6.6%
- US EquitiesSPY-2.8Exceptionally expensive
- Median fair value
- 83.177.3–88.7
- Upside to median
- -16.9%
- 1y modeled
- -0.1%-11.0% to 10.7%
- vs Treasury
- -4.2%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 5.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 95% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 7.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 93% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 23.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 77% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 29.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 70% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 34.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 41.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 45.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 52.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 48% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 52.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 89.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 10% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 96.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 4% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Sources17
- 1MSCI USA IndexMSCI
- 2MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 3MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7MSCI ACWI IndexMSCI
- 8Vanguard Total Bond Market ETFVanguard
- 9iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETFBlackRock iShares
- 10
- 11
- 12Short-Term Energy Outlook — Global oil marketsU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 13Today in Energy Daily PricesU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 14Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point breakWorld Gold Council
- 15Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — OutlookInternational Energy Agency
- 16BTC MVRV by Age ChartGlassnode
- 17
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- 2026-09-04_valuation-lens_202353-et
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.