Energy
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 89.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 10% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 85.6
- Upside to median
- -14.4%
- Last close
- $141.96
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
81/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +16.1%
- P75
- +8.1%
- Median
- -2.5%
- P25
- -12.3%
- P10
- -21.4%
40% of modeled scenarios end positive.
valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.4%
- P75
- +4.3%
- Median
- -0.8%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -9.9%
partial_fair_value_convergence_over_three_years_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- -6.6%
- Basis
- direct
The one-year Treasury uses DGS1 on an investment basis; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO US Crude Oil | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 85.6 | $141.96 | -2.5% |
| BNO Brent Crude Oil | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 85.6 | $56.11 | -2.5% |
| UNG Natural Gas | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 85.6 | $10.56 | -2.5% |
| XLE US Energy Sector | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 85.6 | $64.06 | -2.5% |
| XOP Oil and Gas Producers | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 85.6 | $190.71 | -2.5% |