Crypto
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 52.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 94.9
- Upside to median
- -5.1%
- Last close
- $79,726.28
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
62/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.6%
- P75
- +19.7%
- Median
- -0.8%
- P25
- -22.4%
- P10
- -34.9%
51% of modeled scenarios end positive.
valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.6%
- P75
- +8.3%
- Median
- -0.2%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -16.2%
partial_fair_value_convergence_over_three_years_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- -4.9%
- Basis
- direct
The one-year Treasury uses DGS1 on an investment basis; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.