Metals
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 41.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 102.8
- Upside to median
- +2.8%
- Last close
- $406.77
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
78/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.1%
- P75
- +11.5%
- Median
- +2.3%
- P25
- -6.7%
- P10
- -14.1%
59% of modeled scenarios end positive.
valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.1%
- P75
- +6.0%
- Median
- +2.1%
- P25
- -1.9%
- P10
- -5.8%
partial_fair_value_convergence_over_three_years_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- -1.8%
- Basis
- direct
The one-year Treasury uses DGS1 on an investment basis; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | $406.77 | +2.3% |
| SLV Silver | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | $59.82 | +2.3% |
| PPLT Platinum | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | $16.50 | +2.3% |
| CPER Copper | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | $39.95 | +2.3% |
| DBB Base Metals | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | $25.75 | +2.3% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | $99.26 | +2.3% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 102.8 | $65.06 | +2.3% |