China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 5.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 95% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 115.5
- Upside to median
- +15.5%
- Last close
- $54.91
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
81/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.9%
- P75
- +16.5%
- Median
- +9.2%
- P25
- +1.3%
- P10
- -5.1%
80% of modeled scenarios end positive.
valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.9%
- P75
- +10.7%
- Median
- +7.6%
- P25
- +3.9%
- P10
- +0.6%
partial_fair_value_convergence_over_three_years_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- +5.1%
- Basis
- direct
The one-year Treasury uses DGS1 on an investment basis; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $54.91 | +9.2% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $35.88 | +9.2% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $26.05 | +9.2% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $34.20 | +9.2% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $48.22 | +9.2% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $17.10 | +9.2% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $23.20 | +9.2% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $25.86 | +9.2% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $4.43 | +9.2% |
| 3110.HK Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity | +2.7Exceptionally cheap | 115.5 | $31.30 | +9.2% |