US Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 96.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 4% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 83.1
- Upside to median
- -16.9%
- Last close
- $770.19
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-09-04
89/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +10.7%
- P75
- +5.7%
- Median
- -0.1%
- P25
- -5.9%
- P10
- -11.0%
49% of modeled scenarios end positive.
valuation_gap_partial_convergence_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +6.8%
- P75
- +3.9%
- Median
- +1.3%
- P25
- -1.4%
- P10
- -4.3%
partial_fair_value_convergence_over_three_years_plus_fundamental_carry_with_asset_specific_uncertainty
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.11%
- Expected excess
- -4.2%
- Basis
- direct
The one-year Treasury uses DGS1 on an investment basis; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $770.19 | -0.1% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $718.96 | -0.1% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $534.08 | -0.1% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $296.01 | -0.1% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $219.00 | -0.1% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $58.10 | -0.1% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $175.27 | -0.1% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $171.45 | -0.1% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $114.91 | -0.1% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 83.1 | $567.01 | -0.1% |