Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 41.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $71.93
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.6%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -2.6%
80% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Empirical scenario ensemble combining growth/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; diagnostic probabilities are scenario-implied, not calibrated historical probabilities.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.2%
- P75
- +7.1%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- +0.4%
Three-year annualized scenario ensemble using current fair value, sustainable growth/carry, and partial normalization rather than full mean reversion.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.16%
- Expected excess
- +0.8%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and is not guaranteed.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $71.93 | +5.0% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $82.07 | +5.0% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $92.28 | +5.0% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $81.71 | +5.0% |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $105.50 | +5.0% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $79.21 | +5.0% |