Energy
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $127.35
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-08-26
79/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +31.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
blended_income_growth_partial_valuation_convergence_and_institutional_prior
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -10.0%
blended_medium_horizon_fundamental_carry_and_partial_valuation_normalization
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.01%
- Expected excess
- -3.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO US Crude Oil | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $127.35 | +1.0% |
| BNO Brent Crude Oil | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $50.54 | +1.0% |
| UNG Natural Gas | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $10.41 | +1.0% |
| XLE US Energy Sector | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $62.43 | +1.0% |
| XOP Oil and Gas Producers | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $184.46 | +1.0% |