Crypto
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 63.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 37% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $78,406.71
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-08-26
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +75.0%
- P75
- +35.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
blended_income_growth_partial_valuation_convergence_and_institutional_prior
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
blended_medium_horizon_fundamental_carry_and_partial_valuation_normalization
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.01%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD Bitcoin | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | $78,406.71 | +5.0% |
| ADA-USD Cardano | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | $0.21 | +5.0% |
| BNB-USD BNB | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | $698.70 | +5.0% |
| ETH-USD Ethereum | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | $2,469.75 | +5.0% |
| SOL-USD Solana | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | $96.66 | +5.0% |
| XRP-USD XRP | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | $1.38 | +5.0% |