Metals
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 50.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.0
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- Last close
- $421.32
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-08-26
79/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -17.0%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
blended_income_growth_partial_valuation_convergence_and_institutional_prior
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +4.2%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
blended_medium_horizon_fundamental_carry_and_partial_valuation_normalization
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.01%
- Expected excess
- -0.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year investment-basis hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $421.32 | +4.0% |
| CPER Copper | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $40.06 | +4.0% |
| DBB Base Metals | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $25.53 | +4.0% |
| GDX Gold Miners | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $102.42 | +4.0% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $66.41 | +4.0% |
| PPLT Platinum | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $16.61 | +4.0% |
| SLV Silver | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $61.59 | +4.0% |