US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 88.8
- Upside to median
- -11.2%
- Last close
- $767.45
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario blend of sustainable economic growth/carry, partial valuation convergence, and asset-specific current valuation anchors.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Annualized three-year scenario blend with slower valuation convergence and wider macro/fundamental uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.00%
- Expected excess
- 0.0%
- Basis
- direct
Expected excess is a modeled spread versus the current 1Y Treasury investment-basis yield; it is not guaranteed.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $767.45 | +4.0% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $717.51 | +4.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $532.91 | +4.0% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $300.23 | +4.0% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $219.79 | +4.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $57.84 | +4.0% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $183.57 | +4.0% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $169.73 | +4.0% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $116.36 | +4.0% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -1.7Expensive | 88.8 | $569.77 | +4.0% |