Valuation Lens — August 18, 2026

China screens cheap while US and EM valuations stay demanding

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

August 18, 2026Data cutoff Aug 18, 2026, 9:17 PM EDTintraday

The hurdle to beat

4.00%1y Treasury

The 1Y Treasury hurdle is 4.00%, while elevated long-term nominal and real yields keep discount-rate pressure relatively high across risk assets.

10y Treasury: 4.7%
10y real: 2.4%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+1.7
Cheap
Median fair value
108.2100.6–115.4
Upside to median
+8.2%
1y modeled
+8.0%-18.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
+4.0%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
113.090.6–133.4
Upside to median
+13.0%
1y modeled
+12.0%-55.0% to 85.0%
vs Treasury
+8.0%
Fixed IncomeBND
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.098.6–103.5
Upside to median
+1.0%
1y modeled
+4.7%-1.5% to 10.0%
vs Treasury
+0.7%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
102.196.5–108.0
Upside to median
+2.1%
1y modeled
+7.5%-16.0% to 32.0%
vs Treasury
+3.5%
MetalsGLD
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.190.0–110.7
Upside to median
+1.1%
1y modeled
+5.0%-28.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
Europe EquitiesVGK
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
100.695.7–105.1
Upside to median
+0.6%
1y modeled
+7.0%-14.0% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWS
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
98.193.0–104.1
Upside to median
-1.9%
1y modeled
+6.0%-15.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.690.9–102.2
Upside to median
-3.4%
1y modeled
+5.5%-18.0% to 31.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
91.681.1–102.0
Upside to median
-8.4%
1y modeled
+2.0%-35.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
-2.0%
Emerging Markets EquitiesEMXC
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
90.080.7–98.2
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
+4.5%-25.0% to 36.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
88.877.5–97.6
Upside to median
-11.2%
1y modeled
+4.0%-20.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
0.0%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-08-18, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+1.7 Cheap	108.2 100.6–115.4	+8.2%	+8.0% -18.0% to 38.0%	+4.0%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	113.0 90.6–133.4	+13.0%	+12.0% -55.0% to 85.0%	+8.0%
Fixed Income BND	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	101.0 98.6–103.5	+1.0%	+4.7% -1.5% to 10.0%	+0.7%
Japan Equities EWJ	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	102.1 96.5–108.0	+2.1%	+7.5% -16.0% to 32.0%	+3.5%
Metals GLD	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	101.1 90.0–110.7	+1.1%	+5.0% -28.0% to 38.0%	+1.0%
Europe Equities VGK	+0.2 Fair	100.6 95.7–105.1	+0.6%	+7.0% -14.0% to 29.0%	+3.0%
Developed Pacific Equities EWS	-0.2 Fair	98.1 93.0–104.1	-1.9%	+6.0% -15.0% to 28.0%	+2.0%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.7 Somewhat expensive	96.6 90.9–102.2	-3.4%	+5.5% -18.0% to 31.0%	+1.5%
Energy USO	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	91.6 81.1–102.0	-8.4%	+2.0% -35.0% to 38.0%	-2.0%
Emerging Markets Equities EMXC	-1.6 Expensive	90.0 80.7–98.2	-10.0%	+4.5% -25.0% to 36.0%	+0.5%
US Equities SPY	-1.7 Expensive	88.8 77.5–97.6	-11.2%	+4.0% -20.0% to 28.0%	0.0%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+1.7Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 21.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 56%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 34.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 39.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 65%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 57%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 66%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWS · Singapore Broad Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 52.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 63%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.7Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 61.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 38% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 68%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 68.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 30–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Emerging Markets Equities

EMXC · Emerging Markets Ex-China

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 64%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 80%

Sources17

1
SPY: State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
State Street Global Advisors
2
Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK)
Vanguard
3
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
BlackRock iShares
4
iShares MSCI Singapore ETF (EWS)
BlackRock iShares
5
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC)
BlackRock iShares
6
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI)
BlackRock iShares
7
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Vanguard
8
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
Vanguard
9
United States Oil Fund (USO)
USCF Investments
10
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Energy Information Administration
11
Oil Market Report — August 2026
International Energy Agency
12
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) — Charts, data and downloads
World Gold Trust Services
13
Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026
World Gold Council
14
iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK)
BlackRock iShares
15
A Market in Repair
Glassnode
16
Green Shoots
Glassnode
17
Robert J. Shiller U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present
Robert J. Shiller

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: 2026-08-18_valuation-lens_211700-et

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.