Fixed Income
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
BND · US Broad Bond Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 43.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $72.16
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-17
90/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +8.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
80% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario distribution combining economic-output/carry assumptions with partial valuation convergence; not a price target.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.0%
- P75
- +6.5%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- +1.5%
Annualized multi-year scenario model using sustainable fundamentals/carry and partial valuation normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.98%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not guaranteed. DTB1YR is retained on a discount basis.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $72.16 | +5.0% |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $81.35 | +5.0% |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $92.84 | +5.0% |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $82.00 | +5.0% |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $106.77 | +5.0% |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $105.70 | +5.0% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 101.0 | $79.61 | +5.0% |