US Equities
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 76.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.2
- Upside to median
- -6.8%
- Last close
- $776.34
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-14
90/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +17.3%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +2.1%
- P10
- -6.7%
80% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario model combining sustainable economic carry/growth with partial valuation convergence and explicit adverse/base/favorable fundamental states; not a calibrated probability model.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.8%
- P75
- +7.7%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +3.3%
- P10
- +1.2%
Annualized three-year scenario model using sustainable carry/growth plus partial convergence toward current fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 3.97%
- Expected excess
- +1.3%
- Basis
- direct
Uses DGS1 investment-basis yield as the annual hurdle; expected excess is modeled and not a guaranteed return.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $776.34 | +5.3% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $731.07 | +5.3% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $536.80 | +5.3% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $305.09 | +5.3% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $222.77 | +5.3% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $58.16 | +5.3% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $186.51 | +5.3% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $167.37 | +5.3% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $118.20 | +5.3% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -1.6Expensive | 93.2 | $587.82 | +5.3% |