Valuation Lens — August 15, 2026
China and REITs show discounts while Australia and U.S. equities look rich
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury investment-basis yield is 3.97%, with the 10-year at 4.63% and the 10-year real yield at 2.39%.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.6%
- 10y real
- 2.4%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.7Cheap
- Median fair value
- 112.5101.6–122.8
- Upside to median
- +12.5%
- 1y modeled
- +11.2%-4.8% to 27.2%
- vs Treasury
- +7.2%
- Real EstateVNQ+1.2Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 108.098.0–117.7
- Upside to median
- +8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.4%-4.6% to 23.4%
- vs Treasury
- +5.4%
- +0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.893.3–112.5
- Upside to median
- +2.8%
- 1y modeled
- +7.8%-8.2% to 23.8%
- vs Treasury
- +3.8%
- Fixed IncomeIEF+0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.598.2–102.9
- Upside to median
- +0.5%
- 1y modeled
- +4.9%-0.1% to 9.9%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- 0.0Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.093.2–106.8
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-5.0% to 19.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.0%
- MetalsGLD0.0Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.089.9–112.4
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- 1y modeled
- +2.1%-16.0% to 20.5%
- vs Treasury
- -1.9%
- CryptoBTC-USD-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.681.5–122.8
- Upside to median
- -0.4%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-35.1% to 46.3%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- -0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 98.191.4–104.9
- Upside to median
- -1.9%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-7.0% to 19.0%
- vs Treasury
- +2.0%
- EnergyUSO-1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 89.273.8–104.7
- Upside to median
- -10.8%
- 1y modeled
- -1.7%-23.9% to 22.3%
- vs Treasury
- -5.7%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 93.286.9–99.7
- Upside to median
- -6.8%
- 1y modeled
- +5.3%-6.7% to 17.3%
- vs Treasury
- +1.3%
- -1.8Expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.683.7–97.8
- Upside to median
- -9.4%
- 1y modeled
- +3.7%-9.3% to 16.7%
- vs Treasury
- -0.3%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 21.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 79% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 29.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 71% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 44.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 50.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 50.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 51.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–260 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 55.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 45% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 66.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 80.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources14
- 1
- 2iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHIiShares / BlackRock
- 3iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJiShares / BlackRock
- 4iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWAiShares / BlackRock
- 5
- 6Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF | VGKVanguard
- 7
- 8
- 9
- 10Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 11Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026 — OutlookWorld Gold Council
- 12Trigger HappyGlassnode Research
- 13Robert J. Shiller U.S. Stock Markets 1871-PresentRobert J. Shiller
- 14Today in Energy Daily PricesU.S. Energy Information Administration
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- 2026-08-15_valuation-lens_223638-et
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.