US Equities
Data cutoff intraday
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 76.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $777.88
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-13
88/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
59% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Scenario return distribution anchored to current economic value, income/carry where applicable, and partial valuation convergence; not a long-run-average forecast.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario distribution using current fair value, economic carry/growth, and gradual rather than forced normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.00%
- Expected excess
- +0.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current annual investment-basis hurdle; modeled expected excess is not guaranteed return.
Instruments
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.6Expensive | 92.0 | $777.88 | +4.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $732.07 | — |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $537.91 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $303.50 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $222.73 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $58.26 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $185.79 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.38 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $118.45 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $589.12 | — |