Valuation Lens — August 13, 2026
China and emerging markets lead value while U.S. equities remain expensive
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The preferred one-year Treasury hurdle is 4.0%, with a 2.42% real 10-year yield keeping discount-rate discipline important across long-duration assets.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.7%
- 10y real
- 2.4%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.6Cheap
- Median fair value
- 113.0101.2–125.8
- Upside to median
- +13.0%
- 1y modeled
- +15.0%-20.0% to 48.0%
- vs Treasury
- +11.0%
- +1.4Cheap
- Median fair value
- 111.099.2–124.8
- Upside to median
- +11.0%
- 1y modeled
- +13.0%-22.0% to 48.0%
- vs Treasury
- +9.0%
- +1.3Cheap
- Median fair value
- 107.099.1–115.9
- Upside to median
- +7.0%
- 1y modeled
- +10.0%-17.0% to 36.0%
- vs Treasury
- +6.0%
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.8Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 101.099.0–103.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.8%-4.0% to 12.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.8%
- MetalsGLD+0.4Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 102.094.1–111.9
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-20.0% to 35.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- Real EstateVNQ+0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.094.1–109.9
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-18.0% to 34.0%
- vs Treasury
- +4.0%
- 0.0Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.095.1–106.9
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.0%-16.0% to 35.0%
- vs Treasury
- +5.0%
- CryptoBTC-USD0.0Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.078.3–132.6
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +10.0%-48.0% to 85.0%
- vs Treasury
- +6.0%
- -0.4Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 98.093.1–104.9
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-16.0% to 30.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.0%
- EnergyUSO-1.0Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 94.088.1–102.9
- Upside to median
- -6.0%
- 1y modeled
- +1.0%-28.0% to 35.0%
- vs Treasury
- -3.0%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.6Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.086.1–98.9
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-18.0% to 26.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 23.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 77% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 27.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 73% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 28.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 72% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 37.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 63% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 43.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 57% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 46.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 50.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 49.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–240 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–200 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 56.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 66.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 76.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources18
- 1
- 2MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 3MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7
- 8Vanguard Total Bond Market ETFVanguard
- 9Green Street Commercial Property Price IndexGreen Street
- 10
- 11Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 12United States on track for record natural gas production in 2026U.S. Energy Information Administration
- 13Gold Market Commentary: Making wavesWorld Gold Council
- 14Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026: OutlookWorld Gold Council
- 15BTC MVRV Z-ScoreGlassnode
- 16BTC Realized PriceGlassnode
- 17BTC Median Realized PriceGlassnode
- 18BTC Short-Term Holder Realized PriceGlassnode
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- 2026-08-13_valuation-lens_201100-et
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.