Valuation Lens - August 12, 2026
China and real estate screen cheaper, while U.S. and emerging-market equities remain expensive against today’s modeled fair values.
CXProWealth.com
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Cross-asset valuation & forward return intelligence
Valuation Lens - August 12, 2026
China screens cheaper while U.S. and emerging-market equities remain expensive
As of August 12, 2026
11 Asset Classes Valued
72 Valuation Instruments
1Y Treasury 4.03%
Research cutoff · Aug 13, 2026 · 03:59 UTC
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
VALUATION FRAMEWORK
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Undervalued vs overvalued
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
Decision-useful outputs
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
How to use it
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
1Y Treasury benchmark
4.03%
Low-risk return reference
Cheapest valuation
China & HK
+1.9 · Cheap
Most expensive valuation
U.S. Equities
-2.3 · Exceptionally expensive
Highest expected edge vs Treasury
+7.0%
Crypto
Cross-asset valuation & expected return
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
CHEAPER +3-3 MORE EXPENSIVE
China & HK
+1.9
Cheap
Fair gap +12.0% · Edge +4.0%
Real Estate
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +7.1% · Edge +2.5%
Japan Equities
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +4.5% · Edge +3.0%
Fixed Income
+0.3
Fair
Fair gap +0.9% · Edge +0.9%
Metals
+0.2
Fair
Fair gap +1.8% · Edge +1.0%
Crypto
+0.2
Fair
Fair gap +6.4% · Edge +7.0%
Europe Equities
-0.1
Fair
Fair gap 0.0% · Edge +1.5%
Developed Pacific
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -2.8% · Edge +0.5%
Energy
-1.4
Expensive
Fair gap -6.4% · Edge -1.5%
Emerging Mkts
-2.2
Expensive
Fair gap -13.1% · Edge 0.0%
U.S. Equities
-2.3
Exceptionally expensive
Fair gap -10.7% · Edge +1.0%
Select an asset to open its fair value, expected returns, historical calibration, key drivers, and risks.
Detailed valuation dashboard
M = Market price (100) · F = Median fair value · common axis 40–180
How to read the fair-value curve
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
M Market price normalized to 100
F Median modeled fair value
P25–P75 central fair-value range
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
China & Hong Kong Equities
View details
|
|
+1.9 Cheap | +12.0% Fair 112 | +8.0% -20% to +39% | +4.0% Treasury 4.0% | 81% high |
|
Real Estate
View details
|
|
+1.1 Somewhat cheap | +7.1% Fair 107 | +6.5% -18% to +31% | +2.5% Treasury 4.0% | 85% high |
|
Japan Equities
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +4.5% Fair 104 | +7.0% -15% to +29% | +3.0% Treasury 4.0% | 84% high |
|
Fixed Income
View details
|
|
+0.3 Fair | +0.9% Fair 101 | +4.9% -4% to +11% | +0.9% Treasury 4.0% | 93% high |
|
Metals
View details
|
|
+0.2 Fair | +1.8% Fair 102 | +5.0% -24% to +39% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 76% moderate-high |
|
Crypto
View details
|
|
+0.2 Fair | +6.4% Fair 106 | +11.0% -48% to +82% | +7.0% Treasury 4.0% | 57% moderate |
|
Europe Equities
View details
|
|
-0.1 Fair | 0.0% Fair 100 | +5.5% -17% to +29% | +1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 82% high |
|
Developed Pacific Equities
View details
|
|
-1.2 Somewhat expensive | -2.8% Fair 97 | +4.5% -16% to +26% | +0.5% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
|
Energy
View details
|
|
-1.4 Expensive | -6.4% Fair 94 | +2.5% -30% to +38% | -1.5% Treasury 4.0% | 80% high |
|
Emerging Markets Equities
View details
|
|
-2.2 Expensive | -13.1% Fair 87 | +4.0% -25% to +36% | 0.0% Treasury 4.0% | 79% moderate-high |
|
US Equities
View details
|
|
-2.3 Exceptionally expensive | -10.7% Fair 89 | +5.0% -18% to +25% | +1.0% Treasury 4.0% | 91% high |
Per-asset-class details · select a row to expand
1 China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI · Median fair value 112 Valuation +1.9 Cheap Fair-value gap +12.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
VALUATION LENS
China & Hong Kong Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 112
P25–P75 103–119
MCHI China Broad Market
Last 55.08 · 2026-08-12
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0589.6
P1094.9
P25103.4
Median112.0
Mean111.9
P75118.6
P90128.7
P95136.3
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+8.0%
P10 -20.0% · P25 -6.0% · P75 +23.0% · P90 +39.0%
3Y annualized+7.0%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +2.0% · P75 +12.0% · P90 +17.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate56%
Raw observations173
Effective sample19.9
History2011-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Broad China equity multiples are low relative to developed-market benchmarks.
Fair-value risks
- Weak domestic demand and moderating fiscal support reduce confidence that low multiples will fully normalize.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value95
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value112
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value129
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor118
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor116
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HKHang Seng Index Tracker | proxy | 26.42 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| 3033.HKHang Seng Technology Index | proxy | 4.820 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| 3110.HKHong Kong High-Dividend Equity | proxy | 31.04 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| ASHRChina A-Shares | proxy | 35.03 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| CHIQChina Consumer Sector | proxy | 17.99 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| CQQQChina Technology Sector | proxy | 51.90 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| EWHHong Kong Broad Market | proxy | 22.45 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| FXIChina Large-Cap | proxy | 35.23 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| KWEBChina Internet Sector | proxy | 27.54 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
| MCHIChina Broad Market | direct | 55.08 | 112 | +1.9 · Cheap | +8.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: iShares / BlackRock · Vanguard
2 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 107 Valuation +1.1 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +7.1% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 85% high
VALUATION LENS
Real Estate is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 107
P25–P75 99–113
VNQ US Real Estate
Last 97.31 · 2026-08-12
reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0586.0
P1091.3
P2599.0
Median107.1
Mean106.2
P75112.8
P90122.4
P95126.9
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.5%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -5.0% · P75 +19.0% · P90 +31.0%
3Y annualized+6.0%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +1.5% · P75 +10.5% · P90 +15.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate68%
Raw observations251
Effective sample26.0
History2004-09-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Strong FFO and NOI growth with high occupancy supports REIT cash-flow value.
- Private commercial-property values have risen over the past year, providing a supportive cross-check.
Fair-value risks
- A 10-year Treasury yield near 4.7% keeps cap-rate and financing hurdles elevated.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value91
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value107
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value122
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor105
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor109
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REETGlobal Real Estate | proxy | 27.87 | 107 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| REMMortgage Real Estate | proxy | 21.98 | 107 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| REZResidential and Specialized REITs | proxy | 93.69 | 107 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| SRVRData Center and Digital REITs | proxy | 32.13 | 107 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 97.31 | 107 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
| XLREUS Real Estate Sector | proxy | 44.49 | 107 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +6.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: Green Street · Nareit
3 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.5% vs market 100 Expected edge +3.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 84% high
VALUATION LENS
Japan Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 98–109
EWJ Japan Broad Market
Last 97.79 · 2026-08-12
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0587.3
P1091.6
P2598.0
Median104.5
Mean104.0
P75109.4
P90116.6
P95122.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.0%
P10 -15.0% · P25 -4.0% · P75 +18.0% · P90 +29.0%
3Y annualized+6.5%
P10 -2.0% · P25 +2.5% · P75 +10.5% · P90 +14.5%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate57%
Raw observations352
Effective sample37.7
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- A moderate broad-market multiple and a comparatively high distribution yield support current value.
Fair-value risks
- The current multiple is no longer a deep discount, so fair value depends on earnings delivery and shareholder returns.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value92
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value104
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value117
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor103
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor106
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXJJapan Hedged Equity | proxy | 182.13 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 97.79 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| EWJVJapan Value Equity | proxy | 48.00 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| JPXNJapan JPX-Nikkei 400 | proxy | 104.71 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
| SCJJapan Small-Cap Equity | proxy | 109.82 | 104 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +7.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: BlackRock · iShares / BlackRock
4 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 101 Valuation +0.3 Fair Fair-value gap +0.9% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.9% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 93% high
VALUATION LENS
Fixed Income is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 99–102
BND US Broad Bond Market
Last 72.28 · 2026-08-12
fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0595.5
P1097.1
P2598.9
Median100.9
Mean100.7
P75102.4
P90104.8
P95106.4
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.9%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +8.0% · P90 +11.0%
3Y annualized+4.6%
P10 +1.0% · P25 +3.0% · P75 +6.2% · P90 +7.8%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate65%
Raw observations220
Effective sample20.8
History2007-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- BND's starting yield near 4.9% provides a strong carry anchor.
Fair-value risks
- Intermediate duration leaves market value sensitive to further increases in Treasury yields.
- Tight investment-grade spreads reduce the cushion from credit compensation.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value97
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value101
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value105
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor100
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor101
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 72.28 | 101 | +0.3 · Fair | +4.9% |
| HYGHigh-Yield Corporate Bonds | proxy | 79.61 | 101 | +0.3 · Fair | +4.9% |
| IEFIntermediate US Treasuries | proxy | 92.96 | 101 | +0.3 · Fair | +4.9% |
| LQDInvestment-Grade Corporate Bonds | proxy | 106.12 | 101 | +0.3 · Fair | +4.9% |
| SHYShort-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 81.92 | 101 | +0.3 · Fair | +4.9% |
| TIPInflation-Protected Treasuries | proxy | 106.92 | 101 | +0.3 · Fair | +4.9% |
| TLTLong-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 82.11 | 101 | +0.3 · Fair | +4.9% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: IG/HY spread inputs are marked SHORT_HISTORY and are secondary to BND yield, duration, and the Treasury curve.; Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: Vanguard
5 Metals GLD · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.2 Fair Fair-value gap +1.8% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 76% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Metals is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 92–111
GLD Gold
Last 404.92 · 2026-08-12
metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0575.7
P1081.5
P2592.3
Median101.8
Mean101.9
P75111.1
P90122.9
P95131.6
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.0%
P10 -24.0% · P25 -9.0% · P75 +21.0% · P90 +39.0%
3Y annualized+4.5%
P10 -7.0% · P25 -1.0% · P75 +10.0% · P90 +17.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate66%
Raw observations249
Effective sample28.0
History2004-11-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real Treasury yield
2.43 %
Opportunity-cost anchor for gold
Fair-value drivers
- Strong central-bank and investment demand supports gold's scarcity premium.
Fair-value risks
- Positive real Treasury yields remain a material opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding precious metals.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value81
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value102
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value123
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor100
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor102
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPERCopper | proxy | 40.02 | 102 | +0.2 · Fair | +5.0% |
| DBBBase Metals | proxy | 25.50 | 102 | +0.2 · Fair | +5.0% |
| GDXGold Miners | proxy | 90.96 | 102 | +0.2 · Fair | +5.0% |
| GLDGold | direct | 404.92 | 102 | +0.2 · Fair | +5.0% |
| PICKGlobal Metals and Mining | proxy | 63.67 | 102 | +0.2 · Fair | +5.0% |
| PPLTPlatinum | proxy | 15.94 | 102 | +0.2 · Fair | +5.0% |
| SLVSilver | proxy | 59.06 | 102 | +0.2 · Fair | +5.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Commodity fair value is regime-sensitive and non-contractual; scenario dispersion is intentionally wide.; Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: World Gold Council · World Gold Council
6 Crypto BTC-USD · Median fair value 106 Valuation +0.2 Fair Fair-value gap +6.4% vs market 100 Expected edge +7.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 57% moderate
VALUATION LENS
Crypto is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 106
P25–P75 86–126
BTC-USD Bitcoin
Last 63,498.05 · 2026-08-12
crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0550.1
P1063.1
P2586.0
Median106.4
Mean107.0
P75126.4
P90157.5
P95171.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+11.0%
P10 -48.0% · P25 -23.0% · P75 +46.0% · P90 +82.0%
3Y annualized+12.0%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -5.0% · P75 +30.0% · P90 +50.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Bitcoin trades near its median realized price and below the short-term-holder cost basis, providing some cost-basis support.
Fair-value risks
- Spot remains above aggregate realized price and current demand is weak, so cost-basis anchors do not establish a deep intrinsic-value discount.
- The historical return-calibration sample is insufficient for a publication-grade Treasury-beat base rate or conditional probability.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value63
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value106
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value158
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor96
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor110
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADA-USDCardano | proxy | 0.18313 | 106 | +0.2 · Fair | +11.0% |
| BNB-USDBNB | proxy | 611.23 | 106 | +0.2 · Fair | +11.0% |
| BTC-USDBitcoin | direct | 63,498.05 | 106 | +0.2 · Fair | +11.0% |
| ETH-USDEthereum | proxy | 1,884.84 | 106 | +0.2 · Fair | +11.0% |
| SOL-USDSolana | proxy | 75.91 | 106 | +0.2 · Fair | +11.0% |
| XRP-USDXRP | proxy | 1.009 | 106 | +0.2 · Fair | +11.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Crypto lacks contractual cash flows and has insufficient completed 12-month calibration history; fair-value dispersion is intentionally wide and model confidence is lower.; Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: Glassnode
7 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 100 Valuation -0.1 Fair Fair-value gap 0.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
VALUATION LENS
Europe Equities is fair
M Market 100
F Fair 100
P25–P75 94–105
VGK Europe Broad Market
Last 92.25 · 2026-08-12
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0583.5
P1087.3
P2594.0
Median100.0
Mean99.4
P75105.1
P90111.5
P95116.5
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.5%
P10 -17.0% · P25 -5.0% · P75 +17.0% · P90 +29.0%
3Y annualized+5.5%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +1.5% · P75 +9.5% · P90 +13.5%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate62%
Raw observations245
Effective sample27.2
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Moderate earnings growth and a lower multiple than U.S. large caps support a near-fair valuation range.
Fair-value risks
- Valuation has become more stretched across developed ex-U.S. markets, limiting upside from multiple expansion.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value87
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value100
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value111
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor98
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor101
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWGGermany Index | proxy | 43.87 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.5% |
| EWLSwitzerland Index | proxy | 63.65 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.5% |
| EWQFrance Index | proxy | 47.51 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.5% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom Index | proxy | 48.37 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.5% |
| EZUEurozone Equity Index | proxy | 71.69 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.5% |
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 92.25 | 100 | -0.1 · Fair | +5.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Latest recent-price row is 2026-08-11 while the current benchmark snapshot is 2026-08-12.; Only 19 valid recent sessions were available for the representative benchmark.; Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
8 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 97 Valuation -1.2 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -2.8% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Developed Pacific Equities is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 89–104
EWA Australia Broad Market
Last 29.89 · 2026-08-12
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0575.2
P1081.0
P2589.3
Median97.2
Mean96.7
P75103.7
P90113.1
P95117.1
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.5%
P10 -16.0% · P25 -5.0% · P75 +15.0% · P90 +26.0%
3Y annualized+5.0%
P10 -3.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +8.5% · P90 +12.5%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate63%
Raw observations352
Effective sample44.3
History1996-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- A meaningful distribution yield provides recurring economic return.
Fair-value risks
- The Australia benchmark trades at a rich earnings and book multiple while the local cash rate remains restrictive.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value81
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value97
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value113
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor100
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor97
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENZLNew Zealand Broad Market | proxy | 46.90 | 97 | -1.2 · Somewhat expensive | +4.5% |
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 29.89 | 97 | -1.2 · Somewhat expensive | +4.5% |
| EWSSingapore Broad Market | proxy | 33.64 | 97 | -1.2 · Somewhat expensive | +4.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: iShares / BlackRock · Reserve Bank of Australia
9 Energy USO · Median fair value 94 Valuation -1.4 Expensive Fair-value gap -6.4% vs market 100 Expected edge -1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
VALUATION LENS
Energy is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 94
P25–P75 84–103
USO US Crude Oil
Last 127.30 · 2026-08-12
energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0567.8
P1073.0
P2584.2
Median93.6
Mean93.2
P75102.5
P90113.9
P95121.7
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+2.5%
P10 -30.0% · P25 -12.0% · P75 +20.0% · P90 +38.0%
3Y annualized+3.0%
P10 -8.0% · P25 -2.0% · P75 +9.0% · P90 +15.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate44%
Raw observations232
Effective sample44.8
History2006-04-30 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Brent Q3 2026 forecast
85.0 USD/bbl
EIA near-term scarcity anchor
Q3 global inventory draw
3.80 million b/d
EIA supply-demand balance
Fair-value drivers
- Severe supply disruption and large inventory draws support high near-term oil economics.
Fair-value risks
- EIA expects Brent to normalize materially by 2027, reducing the value justified by today's scarcity premium.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value73
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value94
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value114
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor90
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor94
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNOBrent Crude Oil | proxy | 50.72 | 94 | -1.4 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| UNGNatural Gas | proxy | 10.20 | 94 | -1.4 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 127.30 | 94 | -1.4 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| XLEUS Energy Sector | proxy | 61.03 | 94 | -1.4 · Expensive | +2.5% |
| XOPOil and Gas Producers | proxy | 178.58 | 94 | -1.4 · Expensive | +2.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Commodity fair value is regime-sensitive and non-contractual; scenario dispersion is intentionally wide.; Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
10 Emerging Markets Equities EMXC · Median fair value 87 Valuation -2.2 Expensive Fair-value gap -13.1% vs market 100 Expected edge 0.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Emerging Markets Equities is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 87
P25–P75 81–95
EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China
Last 96.83 · 2026-08-12
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EMXC
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0568.4
P1073.3
P2581.0
Median86.9
Mean87.3
P7594.9
P90102.9
P95105.2
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.0%
P10 -25.0% · P25 -9.0% · P75 +20.0% · P90 +36.0%
3Y annualized+4.5%
P10 -5.0% · P25 0.0% · P75 +9.5% · P90 +14.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate64%
Raw observations245
Effective sample30.7
History2005-03-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Vanguard long-run EM return prior
3.00 % annualized
Midpoint of 2%-4% 10Y range; not a 1Y forecast
Fair-value drivers
- High expected earnings growth in parts of emerging Asia can support elevated justified values if delivered.
Fair-value risks
- EMXC earnings and book multiples are rich, while institutional historical context flags broad EM valuations near extremes.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value73
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value87
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value103
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor82
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor87
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXCEmerging Markets Ex-China | direct | 96.83 | 87 | -2.2 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| EWTTaiwan Index | proxy | 106.18 | 87 | -2.2 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| EWYSouth Korea Index | proxy | 175.87 | 87 | -2.2 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| EWZBrazil Index | proxy | 33.86 | 87 | -2.2 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| EZASouth Africa Index | proxy | 68.33 | 87 | -2.2 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| INDAIndia Index | proxy | 49.95 | 87 | -2.2 · Expensive | +4.0% |
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | proxy | 60.41 | 87 | -2.2 · Expensive | +4.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: The production asset class is ex-China (EMXC), while upstream return calibration uses VWO as a proxy; the proxy designation is preserved.; Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: iShares / BlackRock · Vanguard
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 89 Valuation -2.3 Exceptionally expensive Fair-value gap -10.7% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 91% high
VALUATION LENS
US Equities is exceptionally expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 89
P25–P75 83–98
SPY US Large-Cap Index
Last 772.49 · 2026-08-12
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0575.1
P1078.4
P2583.4
Median89.3
Mean90.0
P7597.8
P90103.2
P95106.4
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.0%
P10 -18.0% · P25 -7.0% · P75 +16.0% · P90 +25.0%
3Y annualized+4.8%
P10 -4.0% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +8.5% · P90 +12.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate80%
Raw observations391
Effective sample31.0
History1993-01-31 → 2025-07-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
98.97th percentile of full supplied history
10Y real Treasury yield
2.43 %
Current real discount-rate anchor
Fair-value drivers
- Strong forward earnings growth supports a higher justified multiple than a static historical comparison.
Fair-value risks
- Forward P/E and Shiller CAPE are both elevated, leaving little valuation cushion if growth expectations normalize.
- Positive real Treasury yields raise the discount-rate hurdle for long-duration cash flows.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Conservative value78
Conservative combination of weaker fundamentals and/or a higher required return.
Model weight 15%
Central value89
Central current-economics scenario using the weighted valuation-family mixture.
Model weight 40%
Constructive value103
Constructive combination of stronger fundamentals and/or a lower required return.
Model weight 15%
Historical/relative anchor82
Historical or institutional relative-valuation anchor translated into today's economic setting.
Model weight 15%
Fundamental anchor94
Current-fundamental valuation anchor incorporating growth, income/carry and asset-specific economics.
Model weight 15%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIAUS Blue-Chip Index | proxy | 537.15 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| IWMUS Small-Cap Index | proxy | 302.71 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| QQQUS Technology Index | proxy | 723.70 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| RSPUS Equal-Weight Index | proxy | 221.08 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| SMHUS Semiconductor Sector | proxy | 584.83 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 772.49 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| XLFUS Financial Sector | proxy | 57.92 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| XLIUS Industrial Sector | proxy | 185.88 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| XLVUS Healthcare Sector | proxy | 168.44 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
| XLYUS Consumer Discretionary Sector | proxy | 117.89 | 89 | -2.3 · Exceptionally expensive | +5.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted empirical mixture of five semi-independent valuation families with explicit assumption perturbations; family anchors use current fundamentals, historical/peer context, discount rates, and asset-specific economics.
Limitations: Shiller earnings input is aging and not a true publication-vintage reconstruction; it is used as long-history context, not as a standalone fair-value estimator.; Return-probability calibration is limited to historical base-rate context; no conditional calibrated probability passes the publication gate.
Sources: State Street Global Advisors · Vanguard
Valuation instruments 72
Only instruments with usable valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
2800.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Index Tracker
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.42
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
3033.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Technology Index
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 4.820
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
3110.HK
proxy
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 31.04
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
ADA-USD
proxy
Cardano
Crypto
Last 0.18313
Fair 106
Val. +0.2
1Y +11.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
ASHR
proxy
China A-Shares
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.03
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
BNB-USD
proxy
BNB
Crypto
Last 611.23
Fair 106
Val. +0.2
1Y +11.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
BND
direct
US Broad Bond Market
Fixed Income
Last 72.28
Fair 101
Val. +0.3
1Y +4.9%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
BNO
proxy
Brent Crude Oil
Energy
Last 50.72
Fair 94
Val. -1.4
1Y +2.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
BTC-USD
direct
Bitcoin
Crypto
Last 63,498.05
Fair 106
Val. +0.2
1Y +11.0%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
CHIQ
proxy
China Consumer Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 17.99
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
CPER
proxy
Copper
Metals
Last 40.02
Fair 102
Val. +0.2
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
CQQQ
proxy
China Technology Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 51.90
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
DBB
proxy
Base Metals
Metals
Last 25.50
Fair 102
Val. +0.2
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
DIA
proxy
US Blue-Chip Index
US Equities
Last 537.15
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
DXJ
proxy
Japan Hedged Equity
Japan Equities
Last 182.13
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EMXC
direct
Emerging Markets Ex-China
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 96.83
Fair 87
Val. -2.2
1Y +4.0%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
ENZL
proxy
New Zealand Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 46.90
Fair 97
Val. -1.2
1Y +4.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
ETH-USD
proxy
Ethereum
Crypto
Last 1,884.84
Fair 106
Val. +0.2
1Y +11.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWA
direct
Australia Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 29.89
Fair 97
Val. -1.2
1Y +4.5%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
EWG
proxy
Germany Index
Europe Equities
Last 43.87
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWH
proxy
Hong Kong Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 22.45
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWJ
direct
Japan Broad Market
Japan Equities
Last 97.79
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
EWJV
proxy
Japan Value Equity
Japan Equities
Last 48.00
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWL
proxy
Switzerland Index
Europe Equities
Last 63.65
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWQ
proxy
France Index
Europe Equities
Last 47.51
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWS
proxy
Singapore Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 33.64
Fair 97
Val. -1.2
1Y +4.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWT
proxy
Taiwan Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 106.18
Fair 87
Val. -2.2
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWU
proxy
United Kingdom Index
Europe Equities
Last 48.37
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWY
proxy
South Korea Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 175.87
Fair 87
Val. -2.2
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EWZ
proxy
Brazil Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 33.86
Fair 87
Val. -2.2
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EZA
proxy
South Africa Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 68.33
Fair 87
Val. -2.2
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
EZU
proxy
Eurozone Equity Index
Europe Equities
Last 71.69
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
FXI
proxy
China Large-Cap
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.23
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
GDX
proxy
Gold Miners
Metals
Last 90.96
Fair 102
Val. +0.2
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
GLD
direct
Gold
Metals
Last 404.92
Fair 102
Val. +0.2
1Y +5.0%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
HYG
proxy
High-Yield Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 79.61
Fair 101
Val. +0.3
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
IEF
proxy
Intermediate US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 92.96
Fair 101
Val. +0.3
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
INDA
proxy
India Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 49.95
Fair 87
Val. -2.2
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
IWM
proxy
US Small-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 302.71
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
JPXN
proxy
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400
Japan Equities
Last 104.71
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
KWEB
proxy
China Internet Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 27.54
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
LQD
proxy
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 106.12
Fair 101
Val. +0.3
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
MCHI
direct
China Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 55.08
Fair 112
Val. +1.9
1Y +8.0%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
PICK
proxy
Global Metals and Mining
Metals
Last 63.67
Fair 102
Val. +0.2
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
PPLT
proxy
Platinum
Metals
Last 15.94
Fair 102
Val. +0.2
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
QQQ
proxy
US Technology Index
US Equities
Last 723.70
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
REET
proxy
Global Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 27.87
Fair 107
Val. +1.1
1Y +6.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
REM
proxy
Mortgage Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 21.98
Fair 107
Val. +1.1
1Y +6.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
REZ
proxy
Residential and Specialized REITs
Real Estate
Last 93.69
Fair 107
Val. +1.1
1Y +6.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
RSP
proxy
US Equal-Weight Index
US Equities
Last 221.08
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
SCJ
proxy
Japan Small-Cap Equity
Japan Equities
Last 109.82
Fair 104
Val. +0.9
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
SHY
proxy
Short-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 81.92
Fair 101
Val. +0.3
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
SLV
proxy
Silver
Metals
Last 59.06
Fair 102
Val. +0.2
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
SMH
proxy
US Semiconductor Sector
US Equities
Last 584.83
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
SOL-USD
proxy
Solana
Crypto
Last 75.91
Fair 106
Val. +0.2
1Y +11.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
SPY
direct
US Large-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 772.49
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
SRVR
proxy
Data Center and Digital REITs
Real Estate
Last 32.13
Fair 107
Val. +1.1
1Y +6.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
TIP
proxy
Inflation-Protected Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 106.92
Fair 101
Val. +0.3
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
TLT
proxy
Long-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 82.11
Fair 101
Val. +0.3
1Y +4.9%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
UNG
proxy
Natural Gas
Energy
Last 10.20
Fair 94
Val. -1.4
1Y +2.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
USO
direct
US Crude Oil
Energy
Last 127.30
Fair 94
Val. -1.4
1Y +2.5%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
VGK
direct
Europe Broad Market
Europe Equities
Last 92.25
Fair 100
Val. -0.1
1Y +5.5%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
VNQ
direct
US Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 97.31
Fair 107
Val. +1.1
1Y +6.5%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price and fair-value distribution.
VWO
proxy
Emerging Markets Broad Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 60.41
Fair 87
Val. -2.2
1Y +4.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
XLE
proxy
US Energy Sector
Energy
Last 61.03
Fair 94
Val. -1.4
1Y +2.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
XLF
proxy
US Financial Sector
US Equities
Last 57.92
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
XLI
proxy
US Industrial Sector
US Equities
Last 185.88
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
XLRE
proxy
US Real Estate Sector
Real Estate
Last 44.49
Fair 107
Val. +1.1
1Y +6.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
XLV
proxy
US Healthcare Sector
US Equities
Last 168.44
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
XLY
proxy
US Consumer Discretionary Sector
US Equities
Last 117.89
Fair 89
Val. -2.3
1Y +5.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
XOP
proxy
Oil and Gas Producers
Energy
Last 178.58
Fair 94
Val. -1.4
1Y +2.5%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
XRP-USD
proxy
XRP
Crypto
Last 1.009
Fair 106
Val. +0.2
1Y +11.0%
Asset-class valuation proxy; symbol-specific fundamentals were not independently modeled in this run.
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
China & Hong Kong Equities
MCHI · China Broad Market
VALUATION
+1.9
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 112
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 112
P25–P75 103–119
PRICE WHAT-IF · MCHI
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$61.71
Central P25–P75: $56.95–$65.34
Current: $55.08
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · MCHI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+12.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+8.0%
P10–P90 -20% to +39%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+4.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
56%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
81%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Broad China equity multiples are low relative to developed-market benchmarks.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Weak domestic demand and moderating fiscal support reduce confidence that low multiples will fully normalize.
MCHI P/E
14.1 x
Broad China benchmark
MCHI P/B
1.71 x
Broad China benchmark
MCHI trailing yield
1.97 %
12-month distribution yield
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
VALUATION
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 107
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 107
P25–P75 99–113
PRICE WHAT-IF · VNQ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$104.24
Central P25–P75: $96.34–$109.74
Current: $97.31
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+7.1%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.5%
P10–P90 -18% to +31%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
68%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
85%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Strong FFO and NOI growth with high occupancy supports REIT cash-flow value.
- Private commercial-property values have risen over the past year, providing a supportive cross-check.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 10-year Treasury yield near 4.7% keeps cap-rate and financing hurdles elevated.
Equity REIT FFO growth
14.8 % y/y
Q1 2026 Nareit industry tracker
Equity REIT NOI growth
5.60 % y/y
Q1 2026 Nareit industry tracker
Equity REIT occupancy
93.2 %
Q1 2026 Nareit industry tracker
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 104
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 98–109
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWJ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$102.17
Central P25–P75: $95.83–$107.01
Current: $97.79
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+4.5%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.0%
P10–P90 -15% to +29%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+3.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
57%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
84%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A moderate broad-market multiple and a comparatively high distribution yield support current value.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The current multiple is no longer a deep discount, so fair value depends on earnings delivery and shareholder returns.
EWJ P/E
19.3 x
Broad Japan benchmark
EWJ P/B
2.06 x
Broad Japan benchmark
EWJ trailing yield
3.80 %
12-month distribution yield
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
VALUATION
+0.3
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 101
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 101
P25–P75 99–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · BND
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$72.96
Central P25–P75: $71.47–$73.99
Current: $72.28
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+0.9%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.9%
P10–P90 -4% to +11%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.9%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
65%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
93%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- BND's starting yield near 4.9% provides a strong carry anchor.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Intermediate duration leaves market value sensitive to further increases in Treasury yields.
- Tight investment-grade spreads reduce the cushion from credit compensation.
BND yield to maturity
4.89 %
Starting carry anchor
BND yield to worst
4.88 %
Starting carry anchor
BND duration
5.70 years
Interest-rate sensitivity
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Metals
GLD · Gold
VALUATION
+0.2
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 102
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 92–111
PRICE WHAT-IF · GLD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$412.29
Central P25–P75: $373.70–$449.99
Current: $404.92
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+1.8%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.0%
P10–P90 -24% to +39%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
66%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
76%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Strong central-bank and investment demand supports gold's scarcity premium.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Positive real Treasury yields remain a material opportunity-cost headwind for non-yielding precious metals.
10Y real Treasury yield
2.43 %
Opportunity-cost anchor for gold
Q2 central-bank gold purchases
288.9 tonnes
World Gold Council
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Crypto
BTC-USD · Bitcoin
VALUATION
+0.2
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 106
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 106
P25–P75 86–126
PRICE WHAT-IF · BTC-USD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$67,574.63
Central P25–P75: $54,608.32–$80,261.54
Current: $63,498.05
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BTC-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+6.4%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+11.0%
P10–P90 -48% to +82%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+7.0%
Treasury 4.0%
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION
—
Insufficient decision-grade history
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
57%
moderate
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Bitcoin trades near its median realized price and below the short-term-holder cost basis, providing some cost-basis support.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Spot remains above aggregate realized price and current demand is weak, so cost-basis anchors do not establish a deep intrinsic-value discount.
- The historical return-calibration sample is insufficient for a publication-grade Treasury-beat base rate or conditional probability.
Bitcoin median realized price
63000.0 USD
On-chain median cost basis
Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis
68700.0 USD
Recent-buyer cost basis
Bitcoin aggregate realized price
52800.0 USD
Aggregate on-chain cost basis
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
VALUATION
-0.1
Fair
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 100
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 100
P25–P75 94–105
PRICE WHAT-IF · VGK
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$92.28
Central P25–P75: $86.72–$96.97
Current: $92.25
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
0.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.5%
P10–P90 -17% to +29%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
62%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
82%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Moderate earnings growth and a lower multiple than U.S. large caps support a near-fair valuation range.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Valuation has become more stretched across developed ex-U.S. markets, limiting upside from multiple expansion.
VGK P/E
18.0 x
Portfolio valuation as of Jun 30, 2026
VGK earnings growth rate
9.98 %
Portfolio earnings-growth context
Vanguard developed ex-U.S. return prior
5.50 % annualized
Midpoint of 4.5%-6.5% 10Y range; not a 1Y forecast
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
VALUATION
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 97
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 97
P25–P75 89–104
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWA
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$29.05
Central P25–P75: $26.69–$31.00
Current: $29.89
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-2.8%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.5%
P10–P90 -16% to +26%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
63%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
79%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A meaningful distribution yield provides recurring economic return.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The Australia benchmark trades at a rich earnings and book multiple while the local cash rate remains restrictive.
EWA P/E
22.3 x
Australia representative benchmark
EWA P/B
2.75 x
Australia representative benchmark
EWA trailing yield
2.89 %
12-month distribution yield
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
VALUATION
-1.4
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 94
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 94
P25–P75 84–103
PRICE WHAT-IF · USO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$119.20
Central P25–P75: $107.19–$130.50
Current: $127.30
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-6.4%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+2.5%
P10–P90 -30% to +38%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
-1.5%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
44%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
80%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Severe supply disruption and large inventory draws support high near-term oil economics.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- EIA expects Brent to normalize materially by 2027, reducing the value justified by today's scarcity premium.
Brent Q3 2026 forecast
85.0 USD/bbl
EIA near-term scarcity anchor
Brent 2027 forecast
69.0 USD/bbl
EIA normalization anchor
Q3 global inventory draw
3.80 million b/d
EIA supply-demand balance
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Emerging Markets Equities
EMXC · Emerging Markets Ex-China
VALUATION
-2.2
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 87
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 87
P25–P75 81–95
PRICE WHAT-IF · EMXC
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$84.11
Central P25–P75: $78.47–$91.92
Current: $96.83
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EMXC
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-13.1%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.0%
P10–P90 -25% to +36%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
0.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
64%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
79%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- High expected earnings growth in parts of emerging Asia can support elevated justified values if delivered.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- EMXC earnings and book multiples are rich, while institutional historical context flags broad EM valuations near extremes.
EMXC P/E
21.4 x
Emerging markets ex-China benchmark
EMXC P/B
3.13 x
Emerging markets ex-China benchmark
EMXC trailing yield
2.06 %
12-month distribution yield
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
VALUATION
-2.3
Exceptionally expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 89
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 89
P25–P75 83–98
PRICE WHAT-IF · SPY
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$690.07
Central P25–P75: $644.26–$755.11
Current: $772.49
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-10.7%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.0%
P10–P90 -18% to +25%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.0%
Treasury 4.0%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
80%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
91%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Strong forward earnings growth supports a higher justified multiple than a static historical comparison.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Forward P/E and Shiller CAPE are both elevated, leaving little valuation cushion if growth expectations normalize.
- Positive real Treasury yields raise the discount-rate hurdle for long-duration cash flows.
Forward P/E
21.6 x
SPY FY1 P/E as of Aug 11, 2026
Estimated 3-5Y EPS growth
16.7 %
SPY holdings estimate
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
98.97th percentile of full supplied history
Valuation score
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Fair-value gap
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
1Y expected return
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Expected edge vs Treasury
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
Historical probability
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Valuation confidence
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.
Sources & methodology references 18
Tier 1 · 100%
U.S. Energy Information Administration · 2026-08-11T00:00:00-04:00
Tier 1 · 100%
Reserve Bank of Australia · 2026-08-11T00:00:00+10:00
Tier 2 · 90%
World Gold Council · 2026-07-30T00:00:00+00:00