Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 31.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 69% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 107.1
- Upside to median
- +7.1%
- Last close
- $97.31
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +31.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Blended current fundamentals, income, valuation-convergence scenarios and institutional long-run return priors; long-run averages are used only as priors, not one-year forecasts.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Blended current fundamentals, income, valuation-convergence scenarios and institutional long-run return priors; long-run averages are used only as priors, not one-year forecasts.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.03%
- Expected excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year annual-return hurdle; expected excess is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 107.1 | $27.87 | +6.5% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 107.1 | $21.98 | +6.5% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 107.1 | $93.69 | +6.5% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 107.1 | $32.13 | +6.5% |
| VNQ US Real Estate | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 107.1 | $97.31 | +6.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | +1.1Somewhat cheap | 107.1 | $44.49 | +6.5% |