Metals
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
GLD · Gold
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.8
- Upside to median
- +1.8%
- Last close
- $404.92
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-08-12
76/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +39.0%
- P75
- +21.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
59% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Real-yield, official-sector demand, investment-demand and supply-response scenarios with wide commodity uncertainty.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -1.0%
- P10
- -7.0%
Real-yield, official-sector demand, investment-demand and supply-response scenarios with wide commodity uncertainty.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.03%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year annual-return hurdle; expected excess is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPER Copper | +0.2Fair | 101.8 | $40.02 | +5.0% |
| DBB Base Metals | +0.2Fair | 101.8 | $25.50 | +5.0% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.2Fair | 101.8 | $90.96 | +5.0% |
| GLD Gold | +0.2Fair | 101.8 | $404.92 | +5.0% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | +0.2Fair | 101.8 | $63.67 | +5.0% |
| PPLT Platinum | +0.2Fair | 101.8 | $15.94 | +5.0% |
| SLV Silver | +0.2Fair | 101.8 | $59.06 | +5.0% |