Energy
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
USO · US Crude Oil
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 73.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.6
- Upside to median
- -6.4%
- Last close
- $127.30
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-12
80/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Supply-demand and commodity-price scenarios anchored to EIA's near-term scarcity and normalization path; producer-equity economics are treated as secondary.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Supply-demand and commodity-price scenarios anchored to EIA's near-term scarcity and normalization path; producer-equity economics are treated as secondary.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.03%
- Expected excess
- -1.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year annual-return hurdle; expected excess is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments