Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 0–220 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 106.4
- Upside to median
- +6.4%
- Last close
- $63,498.05
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +82.0%
- P75
- +46.0%
- Median
- +11.0%
- P25
- -23.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
58% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Wide on-chain cost-basis and network-economics scenarios; realized-price anchors inform value while liquidity and adoption uncertainty keep dispersion high.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +50.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +12.0%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Wide on-chain cost-basis and network-economics scenarios; realized-price anchors inform value while liquidity and adoption uncertainty keep dispersion high.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.03%
- Expected excess
- +7.0%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current one-year annual-return hurdle; expected excess is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.