US Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 70.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $773.03
- Confidence
- high
index, market = 100
2026-08-10
89/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
blended- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Valuation-aware total-return scenario distribution using sustainable economic growth/carry and partial valuation convergence; long-run returns used only as priors.
Three years, annualised
blended- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Annualized multi-year scenario distribution with partial rather than full valuation normalization and asset-specific income/carry assumptions.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.01%
- Expected excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
DGS1 is the preferred current investment-basis one-year hurdle; the modeled expected-return edge is not guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 90.0 | $773.03 | +5.5% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $720.87 | — |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $538.99 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $299.98 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $220.22 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.81 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.60 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $119.67 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $569.41 | — |