Valuation Lens — August 10, 2026
China and emerging-market equities lead on value; developed Pacific and energy are most expensive, while fixed income sits near fair value.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The preferred one-year hurdle is the 4.01% DGS1 investment-basis Treasury yield, while high 5Y/10Y real yields raise discount-rate pressure on long-duration assets.
- 10y Treasury
- 4.7%
- 10y real
- 2.4%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- +1.7Cheap
- Median fair value
- 119.0103.4–138.5
- Upside to median
- +19.0%
- 1y modeled
- +12.0%-20.0% to 45.0%
- vs Treasury
- +8.0%
- +1.1Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 109.097.3–123.6
- Upside to median
- +9.0%
- 1y modeled
- +9.5%-19.0% to 39.0%
- vs Treasury
- +5.5%
- +0.5Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.093.2–113.7
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-14.0% to 29.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.5%
- MetalsGLD+0.4Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.089.3–118.6
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.0%-20.0% to 29.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.0%
- Real EstateVNQ+0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 102.091.3–114.7
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-16.0% to 31.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.0%
- Fixed IncomeBND-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.097.1–102.9
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.7%-3.0% to 11.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.7%
- CryptoETH-USD-0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.070.7–143.9
- Upside to median
- 0.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-58.0% to 88.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.0%
- -0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 99.091.2–107.8
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-15.0% to 31.0%
- vs Treasury
- +3.0%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.2Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.079.3–101.7
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-16.0% to 25.0%
- vs Treasury
- +1.5%
- EnergyUSO-1.5Expensive
- Median fair value
- 85.072.3–97.7
- Upside to median
- -15.0%
- 1y modeled
- -3.0%-31.0% to 31.0%
- vs Treasury
- -7.0%
- -2.0Expensive
- Median fair value
- 83.076.2–93.7
- Upside to median
- -17.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.5%-15.0% to 22.0%
- vs Treasury
- +0.5%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 22.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 78% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 31.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 68% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 41.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 43.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 56% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 46.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 51.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 51.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 10–270 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 53.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 70.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 75.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–180 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–180 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 82.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 17% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources18
- 1SPY: State Street® SPDR® S&P 500® ETF TrustState Street Global Advisors
- 2iShares MSCI China ETF | MCHIBlackRock / iShares
- 3China in the Year of the Horse: A stable trot or a brisk gallopJ.P. Morgan Private Bank
- 4iShares MSCI Japan ETF | EWJBlackRock / iShares
- 5Japanese Equities Offer Potential OpportunitiesGoldman Sachs Asset Management
- 6iShares MSCI Australia ETF | EWABlackRock / iShares
- 7
- 8
- 9VGK — Vanguard FTSE Europe ETFVanguard
- 10
- 11
- 12Gold Demand Trends: Q2 2026World Gold Council
- 13Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 14
- 15Ethereum staking: How does it work?ethereum.org
- 16ETH.STORE Statisticsbeaconcha.in
- 17Robert J. Shiller U.S. Stock Markets 1871-PresentRobert J. Shiller / Shiller Data
- 18Today in Energy Daily PricesU.S. Energy Information Administration
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- cxpw_valuation_20260810T213700Z
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.