US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 68.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 30–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 93.5
- Upside to median
- -6.5%
- Last close
- $735.29
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -11.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield (~2%) plus ~10% next-year EPS growth less about one-third convergence toward median fair value and some margin give-back, with a 13-point annual volatility band; normal approximation.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Shareholder yield plus slowing earnings growth with partial margin and multiple normalisation over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.33%
- Modeled excess
- +1.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled median 1-year return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin edge for equity risk at today's valuation.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 93.5 | $735.29 | +6.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $512.22 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $273.67 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $656.54 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.05 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $463.61 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.16 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $162.67 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.80 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $117.58 | — |