US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 74.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 26% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.5
- Upside to median
- -7.5%
- Last close
- $752.10
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +14.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield (about 2%) plus high-single-digit earnings growth less partial (about one-quarter) convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to U.S. large-cap volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -3.5%
Shareholder yield plus normalized earnings growth with gradual multiple compression toward rate-adjusted fair value.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.38%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
The modeled edge over the 1-year Treasury is small next to equity return dispersion; the Treasury offers a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.5Expensive | 92.5 | $752.10 | +6.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $519.34 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $219.98 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $681.09 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $508.31 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $279.14 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.56 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.71 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.60 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $118.16 | — |