US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $755.72
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.5%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -14.5%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
About 2.5% shareholder yield plus consensus earnings growth haircut to roughly 9% less a one-quarter convergence toward median fair value; range from the benchmark's historical volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.5%
Shareholder yield plus earnings growth with partial normalization of the multiple and margins over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.36%
- Modeled excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a competitive return with much less uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $517.13 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $279.33 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $690.49 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $218.31 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $522.49 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.7Expensive | 92.0 | $755.72 | +6.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $56.51 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.40 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $184.87 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $115.38 | — |