US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 81.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $772.31
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +21.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -14.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Next-year EPS growth near 10% (after a haircut to consensus), dividend yield about 1.1% and net buybacks about 1.5%, less a partial-convergence drag of about 2 pp a year toward the median fair value; the long-run average equity return is used only as a prior.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.0%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Sustainable earnings growth plus shareholder yield with partial normalization of margins and multiple over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasuries offer a competitive return with far lower uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $524.68 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $281.29 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $725.61 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $217.43 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $567.67 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.9Expensive | 90.0 | $772.31 | +6.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $56.13 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.49 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $179.72 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $115.33 | — |