Valuation Lens — October 16, 2026

With 10-year Treasury yields above 5%, U.S. and Pacific equities look expensive, while bonds, China and emerging markets screen modestly cheap.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 16, 2026Last market session Oct 16, 2026Data cutoff Oct 16, 2026, 6:56 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.46%1y Treasury

The 4.46% 1-year Treasury par yield sets the annual hurdle, while the 5.09% 10-year yield and 2.74% 10-year real yield sit near the top of their 20-year ranges.

10y Treasury: 5.1%
10y real: 2.7%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+1.0
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.599.1–103.5
Upside to median
+1.5%
1y modeled
+5.5%-1.5% to 11.5%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.095.2–114.1
Upside to median
+4.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-20.0% to 32.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.094.9–112.4
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+7.5%-17.0% to 29.0%
vs Treasury
+3.0%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.3
Fair
Median fair value
103.086.1–123.2
Upside to median
+3.0%
1y modeled
+4.0%-45.0% to 70.0%
vs Treasury
-0.5%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.092.3–106.4
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-13.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.088.3–102.4
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+4.5%-15.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+0.0%
Real EstateVNQ
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.088.9–101.8
Upside to median
-5.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-14.0% to 21.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
EnergyUSO
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
90.080.6–102.1
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
-6.0%-35.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
-10.5%
MetalsGLD
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
92.081.2–101.4
Upside to median
-8.0%
1y modeled
+1.0%-20.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-3.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
91.084.9–98.4
Upside to median
-9.0%
1y modeled
+5.0%-12.0% to 19.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
89.082.9–97.1
Upside to median
-11.0%
1y modeled
+6.0%-14.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-16, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+1.0 Somewhat cheap	101.5 99.1–103.5	+1.5%	+5.5% -1.5% to 11.5%	+1.0%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	104.0 95.2–114.1	+4.0%	+7.0% -20.0% to 32.0%	+2.5%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	103.0 94.9–112.4	+3.0%	+7.5% -17.0% to 29.0%	+3.0%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.3 Fair	103.0 86.1–123.2	+3.0%	+4.0% -45.0% to 70.0%	-0.5%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.2 Fair	99.0 92.3–106.4	-1.0%	+6.5% -13.0% to 23.0%	+2.0%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	95.0 88.3–102.4	-5.0%	+4.5% -15.0% to 22.0%	+0.0%
Real Estate VNQ	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	95.0 88.9–101.8	-5.0%	+5.0% -14.0% to 21.0%	+0.5%
Energy USO	-1.3 Expensive	90.0 80.6–102.1	-10.0%	-6.0% -35.0% to 28.0%	-10.5%
Metals GLD	-1.3 Expensive	92.0 81.2–101.4	-8.0%	+1.0% -20.0% to 22.0%	-3.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.8 Expensive	91.0 84.9–98.4	-9.0%	+5.0% -12.0% to 19.0%	+0.5%
US Equities SPY	-1.9 Expensive	89.0 82.9–97.1	-11.0%	+6.0% -14.0% to 22.0%	+1.5%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+1.0Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 33.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 67% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 37.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.3Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 45.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 80%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 69%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 53%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 71.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 34%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 71.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 41%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 68%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 85%

Sources12

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet
2
S&P 500 Likely to Report Earnings Growth Above 35% for Q3
FactSet
3
S&P 500 Energy Sector Earnings Preview: Q3 2026
FactSet
4
Short-Term Energy Outlook (October 2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
5
MSCI China Index
MSCI
6
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index
MSCI
7
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
8
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
9
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
MSCI
10
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker, Q2 2026
Nareit
11
Bitcoin Daily Report — 11 Oct 2026
BGeometrics
12
Gold price on Saturday, October 10, 2026
PriceGold.net

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: cxpw-valuation-lens-2026-10-16-261016001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.