Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.0
- Upside to median
- -5.0%
- Last close
- $94.88
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-10-16
67/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -15.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 1.8% plus EPS growth and buybacks, less partial multiple normalization; unhedged yen exposure widens the range.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -4.0%
EPS growth near 5% plus dividends and buybacks, with a gradual move toward the reference multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +0.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a similar central return with lower uncertainty.
Instruments