Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 45.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 55% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $46.15
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +70.0%
- P75
- +35.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flows; return is modeled as partial MVRV drift toward scenario fair values with a very wide volatility envelope.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +35.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -10.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Scenario-weighted MVRV paths combined with supply issuance; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- -0.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasury offers a similar central return with far less uncertainty.