China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 37.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.0
- Upside to median
- +4.0%
- Last close
- $51.20
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-16
64/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +32.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -6.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield of about 2.4% plus haircut consensus EPS growth and partial convergence toward median fair value, with wide policy and earnings-revision dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Sustainable EPS growth of 5-7% plus dividends and partial multiple normalization over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- +2.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $25.00 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.09 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $31.12 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.20 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $41.09 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.09 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.84 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.41 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $51.20 | +7.0% |