Energy
Today’s price sits at the 71.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $161.76
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.0%
- P75
- +10.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -20.0%
- P10
- -35.0%
41% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected crude spot path toward the official 2027 average, partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated futures curve, plus collateral interest; very wide supply-shock dispersion.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +3.0%
- Median
- -4.0%
- P25
- -11.0%
- P10
- -18.0%
Gradual normalization toward marginal-cost crude prices with roll and collateral income.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.46%
- Modeled excess
- -10.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury offers a higher central return with far lower uncertainty.