US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 68.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.6
- Upside to median
- -5.4%
- Last close
- $773.50
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.0%
- P75
- +17.3%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.3%
- P10
- -14.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Building blocks: about 1.2% dividend yield plus about 0.8% net buybacks plus about 10% normalized forward EPS growth, less about 2% from partial valuation convergence and about 3.5% for margin and investment-gain normalization; dispersion from US large-cap volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.3%
- P75
- +11.7%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -0.7%
- P10
- -6.3%
Building blocks over three years with one-third valuation convergence toward the fair-value median and margin normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.45%
- Expected excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The equity edge over Treasuries is thin relative to equity risk.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $519.78 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $285.58 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $741.47 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $212.68 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $596.03 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 94.6 | $773.50 | +6.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $55.90 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.98 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.01 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $112.23 | — |