US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 60–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 93.8
- Upside to median
- -6.2%
- Last close
- $765.96
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.6%
- P75
- +19.3%
- Median
- +7.9%
- P25
- -3.6%
- P10
- -13.9%
68% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth plus a 20% partial convergence toward the modeled median fair value, dispersed using the asset class's own realized return volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +22.5%
- P75
- +15.9%
- Median
- +8.4%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -5.7%
Same decomposition as the one-year model with valuation convergence spread over three years and dispersion scaled by the square root of the horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.13%
- Expected excess
- +3.8%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year expected-return median less the one-year Treasury par yield on an investment basis. This is a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, and no calibrated probability of beating the hurdle is published for this asset class.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $528.03 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $294.67 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $718.36 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $216.73 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $573.73 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.8 | $765.96 | +7.9% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.30 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $174.42 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.13 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $113.99 | — |