Valuation Lens - September 2, 2026
China and emerging markets show the widest fair-value discounts, while U.S. equities remain expensive and bonds offer a modest Treasury edge.
CXProWealth.com
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Cross-asset valuation & forward return intelligence
Valuation Lens - September 2, 2026
China Leads Value While U.S. Equities Remain Expensive
As of September 2, 2026
11 Asset Classes Valued
69 Valuation Instruments
1Y Treasury 4.18%
Research cutoff · Sep 2, 2026 · 21:55 UTC
WHAT THIS REPORT DOES How Valuation Lens estimates present fair value and identifies markets that look cheap, fair, or expensive.
VALUATION FRAMEWORK
Valuation Lens helps investors judge whether current market pricing looks cheap, fair, or expensive relative to modeled present fair value.
Each asset class is evaluated by comparing today’s market price with a distribution of defensible current economic values. That fair-value distribution is built from asset-specific fundamentals, expected growth and cash-flow progression, valuation relationships and multiples, interest-rate and real-yield conditions, historical valuation context, and other relevant economic anchors. The result is not a pure price target: it is a structured estimate of what the asset could reasonably be worth today under a range of economically defensible assumptions.
Undervalued vs overvalued
Where market price sits within the modeled fair-value distribution determines the valuation score: toward the lower tail means cheaper, toward the upper tail means more expensive, and near the center is closer to fair.
Decision-useful outputs
The report highlights fair-value gap, modeled expected return, expected edge versus the 1Y Treasury benchmark, and confidence in the valuation signal.
How to use it
Use the valuation score and fair-value curve as a disciplined decision aid alongside risk, diversification, and time-horizon considerations.
1Y Treasury benchmark
4.18%
Low-risk return reference
Cheapest valuation
China & HK
+1.6 · Cheap
Most expensive valuation
U.S. Equities
-1.9 · Expensive
Highest expected edge vs Treasury
+7.3%
Emerging Mkts
Cross-asset valuation & expected return
Valuation opportunity map
Green = cheaper relative to modeled fair value. Red = more expensive. Tiles are ordered from cheaper to more expensive.
CHEAPER +3-3 MORE EXPENSIVE
China & HK
+1.6
Cheap
Fair gap +18.0% · Edge +7.1%
Emerging Mkts
+1.2
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +8.0% · Edge +7.3%
Energy
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +8.0% · Edge +5.0%
Crypto
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +10.0% · Edge +7.3%
Fixed Income
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +2.0% · Edge +1.5%
Japan Equities
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +4.0% · Edge +5.8%
Europe Equities
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +4.0% · Edge +4.7%
Metals
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Fair gap +4.0% · Edge +0.2%
Real Estate
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -1.0% · Edge +2.8%
Developed Pacific
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Fair gap -2.0% · Edge +2.1%
U.S. Equities
-1.9
Expensive
Fair gap -8.0% · Edge +1.3%
Select an asset to open its fair value, expected returns, historical calibration, key drivers, and risks.
Detailed valuation dashboard
M = Market price (100) · F = Median fair value · common axis 40–190
How to read the fair-value curve
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, the chart shows the range of defensible current economic values.
M Market price normalized to 100
F Median modeled fair value
P25–P75 central fair-value range
| Asset class | Fair-value distribution | Valuation | Fair-value gap | 1Y expected | Expected edge vs 1Y Treasury | Val. confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
China & Hong Kong Equities
View details
|
|
+1.6 Cheap | +18.0% Fair 118 | +11.3% +3% to +21% | +7.1% Treasury 4.2% | 77% moderate-high |
|
Emerging Markets Equities
View details
|
|
+1.2 Somewhat cheap | +8.0% Fair 108 | +11.5% +3% to +19% | +7.3% Treasury 4.2% | 79% moderate-high |
|
Energy
View details
|
|
+1.1 Somewhat cheap | +8.0% Fair 108 | +9.2% +2% to +16% | +5.0% Treasury 4.2% | 80% high |
|
Crypto
View details
|
|
+0.9 Somewhat cheap | +10.0% Fair 110 | +11.5% -14% to +49% | +7.3% Treasury 4.2% | 65% moderate-high |
|
Fixed Income
View details
|
|
+0.6 Somewhat cheap | +2.0% Fair 102 | +5.7% +4% to +7% | +1.5% Treasury 4.2% | 91% high |
|
Japan Equities
View details
|
|
+0.5 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +10.0% +6% to +13% | +5.8% Treasury 4.2% | 82% high |
|
Europe Equities
View details
|
|
+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +8.9% +4% to +13% | +4.7% Treasury 4.2% | 81% high |
|
Metals
View details
|
|
+0.4 Somewhat cheap | +4.0% Fair 104 | +4.4% -3% to +11% | +0.2% Treasury 4.2% | 80% high |
|
Real Estate
View details
|
|
-0.7 Somewhat expensive | -1.0% Fair 99 | +7.0% +2% to +10% | +2.8% Treasury 4.2% | 70% moderate-high |
|
Developed Pacific Equities
View details
|
|
-0.9 Somewhat expensive | -2.0% Fair 98 | +6.3% +2% to +9% | +2.1% Treasury 4.2% | 78% moderate-high |
|
US Equities
View details
|
|
-1.9 Expensive | -8.0% Fair 92 | +5.5% -2% to +10% | +1.3% Treasury 4.2% | 90% high |
Per-asset-class details · select a row to expand
1 China & Hong Kong Equities FXI · Median fair value 118 Valuation +1.6 Cheap Fair-value gap +18.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +7.1% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 77% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
China & Hong Kong Equities is cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 118
P25–P75 110–126
FXI China Large-Cap
Last 35.54 · 2026-09-02
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · FXI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0578.0
P1090.0
P25110.0
Median118.0
Mean118.9
P75126.0
P90150.0
P95150.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+11.3%
P10 +2.9% · P25 +8.9% · P75 +13.7% · P90 +20.9%
3Y annualized+12.6%
P10 +3.4% · P25 +10.1% · P75 +14.9% · P90 +21.4%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate56%
Raw observations174
Effective sample20.3
History2011-03-31 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
FXI P/E
11.2 x
Below Japan, Europe and broad emerging-market peer multiples
FXI trailing yield
1.86 %
Income support, though not a complete valuation anchor
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.18 %
High external hurdle for equity risk-taking
Fair-value drivers
- Low current earnings and book-value multiples provide a sizable valuation cushion versus major regional peers.
- The modeled distribution allows higher justified multiples if profitability and growth stabilize.
Fair-value risks
- Low multiples may reflect persistent policy, property, governance and earnings-quality risk rather than pure mispricing.
- A high U.S. Treasury hurdle raises the opportunity cost of accepting equity and currency risk.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside110
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Base118
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 20%
Upside126
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 17%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FXIChina Large-Cap | direct | 35.54 | 118 | +1.6 · Cheap | +11.3% |
| KWEBChina Internet Sector | proxy | 25.70 | 118 | +1.6 · Cheap | +11.3% |
| ASHRChina A-Shares | proxy | 33.99 | 118 | +1.6 · Cheap | +11.3% |
| CHIQChina Consumer Sector | proxy | 16.96 | 118 | +1.6 · Cheap | +11.3% |
| EWHHong Kong Broad Market | proxy | 22.87 | 118 | +1.6 · Cheap | +11.3% |
| 2800.HKHang Seng Index Tracker | proxy | 26.08 | 118 | +1.6 · Cheap | +11.3% |
| 3033.HKHang Seng Technology Index | proxy | 4.532 | 118 | +1.6 · Cheap | +11.3% |
| 3110.HKHong Kong High-Dividend Equity | proxy | 31.16 | 118 | +1.6 · Cheap | +11.3% |
Method & data quality
Weighted today-equivalent equity scenarios using current valuation/fundamental evidence, peer or historical anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Upstream conditional calibration was not run because a required historical distribution-yield feature was unavailable; the historical unconditional base rate is preserved when available.
Sources: BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares
2 Emerging Markets Equities VWO · Median fair value 108 Valuation +1.2 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +7.3% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 79% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Emerging Markets Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 108
P25–P75 94–116
VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index
Last 60.77 · 2026-09-02
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VWO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0572.0
P1084.0
P2594.0
Median108.0
Mean107.8
P75116.0
P90128.0
P95142.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+11.5%
P10 +3.1% · P25 +6.6% · P75 +14.3% · P90 +18.5%
3Y annualized+10.3%
P10 +2.1% · P25 +5.7% · P75 +12.8% · P90 +16.3%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate64%
Raw observations246
Effective sample30.7
History2005-03-31 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Large valuation dispersion creates meaningful pockets of value, particularly in lower-multiple markets.
- Higher structural growth potential supports a somewhat higher justified multiple than low-growth markets.
Fair-value risks
- The asset class contains expensive technology-heavy markets alongside cheap cyclical markets, widening fair-value uncertainty.
- A 4.18% one-year Treasury hurdle requires a meaningful risk premium from emerging-market equities.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside94
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 14%
Base108
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 18%
Upside116
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWOEmerging Markets Broad Index | direct | 60.77 | 108 | +1.2 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| EMXCEmerging Markets Ex-China | proxy | 98.67 | 108 | +1.2 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| INDAIndia Index | proxy | 49.97 | 108 | +1.2 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| EWZBrazil Index | proxy | 38.09 | 108 | +1.2 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| EWTTaiwan Index | proxy | 109.43 | 108 | +1.2 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| EWYSouth Korea Index | proxy | 178.86 | 108 | +1.2 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| EZASouth Africa Index | proxy | 69.99 | 108 | +1.2 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted today-equivalent equity scenarios using current valuation/fundamental evidence, peer or historical anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Upstream conditional calibration was not run because a required historical distribution-yield feature was unavailable; the historical unconditional base rate is preserved when available.
Sources: BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares
3 Energy USO · Median fair value 108 Valuation +1.1 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.0% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
VALUATION LENS
Energy is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 108
P25–P75 96–116
USO US Crude Oil
Last 141.15 · 2026-09-02
energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0578.0
P1088.0
P2596.0
Median108.0
Mean107.5
P75116.0
P90126.0
P95140.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+9.2%
P10 +2.2% · P25 +5.0% · P75 +12.0% · P90 +15.5%
3Y annualized+8.0%
P10 +1.2% · P25 +4.0% · P75 +10.5% · P90 +13.4%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate45%
Raw observations233
Effective sample44.8
History2006-04-30 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
XLE forward P/E
12.9 x
Low forward multiple for the energy-equity sleeve
XLE index dividend yield
2.42 %
Income component from producer equities
Observed global oil stocks
7.90 bn barrels
Below 7.9bn, lowest since April 2025
Fair-value drivers
- Producer-equity forward multiples are low relative to expected earnings growth.
- The IEA projects a substantial Q3 oil-market deficit and unusually low observed inventories.
Fair-value risks
- Current oil economics are heavily influenced by geopolitical disruption, so scarcity premiums may reverse quickly.
- The IEA also forecasts 2026 demand contraction, limiting confidence in extrapolating current tightness.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside96
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Base108
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 18%
Upside116
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the energy_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USOUS Crude Oil | direct | 141.15 | 108 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +9.2% |
| BNOBrent Crude Oil | proxy | 55.74 | 108 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +9.2% |
| UNGNatural Gas | proxy | 10.75 | 108 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +9.2% |
| XLEUS Energy Sector | proxy | 65.10 | 108 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +9.2% |
| XOPOil and Gas Producers | proxy | 193.16 | 108 | +1.1 · Somewhat cheap | +9.2% |
Method & data quality
Weighted commodity supply-demand and producer-equity valuation scenarios.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: State Street Global Advisors · International Energy Agency
4 Crypto ETH-USD · Median fair value 110 Valuation +0.9 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +10.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +7.3% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 65% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Crypto is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 110
P25–P75 90–155
ETH-USD Ethereum
Last 2,388.32 · 2026-09-02
crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · ETH-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0545.0
P1060.0
P2590.0
Median110.0
Mean118.7
P75155.0
P90185.0
P95185.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+11.5%
P10 -13.5% · P25 +1.5% · P75 +34.0% · P90 +49.0%
3Y annualized+11.7%
P10 -7.2% · P25 +5.0% · P75 +24.2% · P90 +31.3%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Key valuation metrics
Institutional valuation signal
—
Fidelity reports several valuation indicators near low/value or capitulation conditions
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.18 %
High hurdle for a non-contractual cash-flow asset
Fair-value drivers
- Institutional research describes several digital-asset valuation indicators as approaching historically low or value-like conditions.
- Underlying adoption and network activity remain relevant even after a large drawdown in market prices.
Fair-value risks
- Crypto lacks a universally accepted intrinsic-value framework, so fair-value dispersion is intentionally much wider than for contractual cash-flow assets.
- A positive Treasury hurdle and high crypto volatility require a large risk premium for modeled value to be compelling.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside90
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 13%
Base110
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 22%
Upside155
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the crypto_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 12%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH-USDEthereum | direct | 2,388.32 | 110 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| SOL-USDSolana | proxy | 99.46 | 110 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| XRP-USDXRP | proxy | 1.347 | 110 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| BNB-USDBNB | proxy | 686.45 | 110 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
| ADA-USDCardano | proxy | 0.19790 | 110 | +0.9 · Somewhat cheap | +11.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted on-chain, network-utility, adoption and liquidity scenarios with deliberately wide model dispersion.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Crypto fair value is model-dependent and intentionally wide; BTC MVRV is used only as a cross-crypto proxy and not as direct ETH intrinsic value.
Sources: Fidelity Digital Assets · Fidelity · Glassnode
5 Fixed Income BND · Median fair value 102 Valuation +0.6 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.5% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 91% high
VALUATION LENS
Fixed Income is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 100–104
BND US Broad Bond Market
Last 71.83 · 2026-09-02
fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0593.0
P1096.0
P25100.0
Median102.0
Mean102.1
P75104.0
P90107.0
P95110.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.7%
P10 +3.6% · P25 +5.0% · P75 +6.4% · P90 +7.4%
3Y annualized+5.7%
P10 +3.6% · P25 +5.0% · P75 +6.3% · P90 +7.3%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate65%
Raw observations221
Effective sample21.1
History2007-04-30 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.18 %
Preferred annual comparator
IG OAS
0.81 %
Credit spreads remain relatively tight
Fair-value drivers
- A starting yield near 5% provides a meaningful contractual return anchor and modest spread over the one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Long and real Treasury yields sit near the upper end of recent history, creating upside if rates normalize.
Fair-value risks
- Duration exposes BND to further losses if long yields rise from already elevated levels.
- Tight investment-grade credit spreads limit the cushion from additional spread compression.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside100
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Base102
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 22%
Upside104
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the fixed_income_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 18%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BNDUS Broad Bond Market | direct | 71.83 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +5.7% |
| TLTLong-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 81.95 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +5.7% |
| IEFIntermediate US Treasuries | proxy | 92.18 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +5.7% |
| SHYShort-Term US Treasuries | proxy | 81.64 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +5.7% |
| TIPInflation-Protected Treasuries | proxy | 106.86 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +5.7% |
| LQDInvestment-Grade Corporate Bonds | proxy | 105.35 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +5.7% |
| HYGHigh-Yield Corporate Bonds | proxy | 79.11 | 102 | +0.6 · Somewhat cheap | +5.7% |
Method & data quality
Weighted justified-yield scenarios translated to current price equivalents with duration-aware bond valuation.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Upstream conditional calibration was not run because a required historical distribution-yield feature was unavailable; the historical unconditional base rate is preserved when available.
Sources: Vanguard
6 Japan Equities EWJ · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.5 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +5.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 82% high
VALUATION LENS
Japan Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 96–108
EWJ Japan Broad Market
Last 96.04 · 2026-09-02
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.0
P1090.0
P2596.0
Median104.0
Mean104.0
P75108.0
P90114.0
P95122.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+10.0%
P10 +5.8% · P25 +7.6% · P75 +11.2% · P90 +13.0%
3Y annualized+9.1%
P10 +4.3% · P25 +6.4% · P75 +10.4% · P90 +12.3%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate57%
Raw observations353
Effective sample37.7
History1996-04-30 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
EWJ P/E
19.4 x
Above Japan value 15.32x and small-cap 17.13x
Fair-value drivers
- A relatively high distribution yield and cheaper value/small-cap subsegments support the asset-class fair-value range.
- Broad-market valuation is not extreme relative to developed-market peers.
Fair-value risks
- The broad EWJ multiple already embeds a meaningful re-rating versus cheaper domestic value segments.
- Higher global discount rates limit how far justified equity multiples can expand.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside96
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 12%
Base104
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 22%
Upside108
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJJapan Broad Market | direct | 96.04 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +10.0% |
| DXJJapan Hedged Equity | proxy | 180.15 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +10.0% |
| SCJJapan Small-Cap Equity | proxy | 108.92 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +10.0% |
| EWJVJapan Value Equity | proxy | 48.46 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +10.0% |
| JPXNJapan JPX-Nikkei 400 | proxy | 102.65 | 104 | +0.5 · Somewhat cheap | +10.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted today-equivalent equity scenarios using current valuation/fundamental evidence, peer or historical anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Upstream conditional calibration was not run because a required historical distribution-yield feature was unavailable; the historical unconditional base rate is preserved when available.
Sources: BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares
7 Europe Equities VGK · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +4.7% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 81% high
VALUATION LENS
Europe Equities is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 94–110
VGK Europe Broad Market
Last 90.96 · 2026-09-02
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0578.0
P1088.0
P2594.0
Median104.0
Mean104.2
P75110.0
P90118.0
P95128.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+8.9%
P10 +4.1% · P25 +5.9% · P75 +10.7% · P90 +13.1%
3Y annualized+8.0%
P10 +2.5% · P25 +4.7% · P75 +9.9% · P90 +12.4%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate62%
Raw observations246
Effective sample27.2
History2005-03-31 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Fair-value drivers
- Regional multiples cluster near 19x, below U.S. cyclically adjusted valuation extremes.
- A higher dividend yield provides part of the expected-return case even without multiple expansion.
Fair-value risks
- Current multiples are not deeply discounted, limiting the margin of safety if earnings growth disappoints.
- Elevated global discount rates constrain justified multiple expansion.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside94
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 12%
Base104
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 22%
Upside110
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGKEurope Broad Market | direct | 90.96 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +8.9% |
| EZUEurozone Equity Index | proxy | 69.88 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +8.9% |
| EWUUnited Kingdom Index | proxy | 48.22 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +8.9% |
| EWGGermany Index | proxy | 43.52 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +8.9% |
| EWQFrance Index | proxy | 45.59 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +8.9% |
| EWLSwitzerland Index | proxy | 62.89 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +8.9% |
Method & data quality
Weighted today-equivalent equity scenarios using current valuation/fundamental evidence, peer or historical anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Upstream conditional calibration was not run because a required historical distribution-yield feature was unavailable; the historical unconditional base rate is preserved when available.
Sources: BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares
8 Metals GLD · Median fair value 104 Valuation +0.4 Somewhat cheap Fair-value gap +4.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +0.2% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 80% high
VALUATION LENS
Metals is somewhat cheap
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 92–112
GLD Gold
Last 402.78 · 2026-09-02
metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0572.0
P1084.0
P2592.0
Median104.0
Mean104.5
P75112.0
P90122.0
P95134.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+4.4%
P10 -2.6% · P25 +0.2% · P75 +7.2% · P90 +10.7%
3Y annualized+3.3%
P10 -3.6% · P25 -0.7% · P75 +5.8% · P90 +8.9%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate66%
Raw observations250
Effective sample28.0
History2004-11-30 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y real Treasury yield
2.44 %
High opportunity cost for non-yielding gold
Fair-value drivers
- Central-bank accumulation and renewed ETF inflows provide structural and investment-demand support.
- Mine-supply growth remains modest relative to the scale of strategic demand.
Fair-value risks
- High real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
- Gold already trades at historically high nominal price levels, increasing sensitivity to demand normalization.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside92
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 12%
Base104
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 21%
Upside112
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the metal_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 17%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLDGold | direct | 402.78 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +4.4% |
| SLVSilver | proxy | 59.07 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +4.4% |
| PPLTPlatinum | proxy | 15.98 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +4.4% |
| CPERCopper | proxy | 39.53 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +4.4% |
| DBBBase Metals | proxy | 25.61 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +4.4% |
| GDXGold Miners | proxy | 97.63 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +4.4% |
| PICKGlobal Metals and Mining | proxy | 64.88 | 104 | +0.4 · Somewhat cheap | +4.4% |
Method & data quality
Weighted real-yield, demand, supply and strategic-ownership scenarios for precious and industrial metals.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.
Sources: World Gold Council · World Gold Council
9 Real Estate VNQ · Median fair value 99 Valuation -0.7 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -1.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.8% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 70% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Real Estate is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 99
P25–P75 96–103
VNQ US Real Estate
Last 95.78 · 2026-09-02
reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0582.0
P1082.0
P2596.0
Median99.0
Mean99.3
P75103.0
P90109.0
P95118.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+7.0%
P10 +1.9% · P25 +6.1% · P75 +8.2% · P90 +10.0%
3Y annualized+6.5%
P10 +0.4% · P25 +5.4% · P75 +7.8% · P90 +9.7%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate68%
Raw observations252
Effective sample26.2
History2004-09-30 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
10Y Treasury yield
4.79 %
High financing and cap-rate hurdle
Fair-value drivers
- Positive broad REIT earnings growth supports cash-flow resilience.
- Income remains a meaningful component of total-return economics.
Fair-value risks
- A 4.79% ten-year Treasury yield raises financing costs and the required cap-rate or earnings yield for REITs.
- Direct AFFO, NAV-discount and cap-rate data were not available in the structured feed, so fair-value precision is intentionally limited.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside96
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 17%
Base99
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 22%
Upside103
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the reit_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 18%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQUS Real Estate | direct | 95.78 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +7.0% |
| XLREUS Real Estate Sector | proxy | 43.73 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +7.0% |
| REETGlobal Real Estate | proxy | 27.33 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +7.0% |
| REMMortgage Real Estate | proxy | 21.62 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +7.0% |
| SRVRData Center and Digital REITs | proxy | 30.54 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +7.0% |
| REZResidential and Specialized REITs | proxy | 93.96 | 99 | -0.7 · Somewhat expensive | +7.0% |
Method & data quality
Weighted REIT cash-flow, book/NAV-proxy and discount-rate scenarios; direct AFFO/NAV coverage is limited.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Direct AFFO/FFO, NAV-discount and cap-rate history were not supplied; REIT fair value relies on broad fund fundamentals and rate sensitivity.; Upstream conditional calibration was not run because a required historical distribution-yield feature was unavailable; the historical unconditional base rate is preserved when available.
Sources: Vanguard · BlackRock / iShares
10 Developed Pacific Equities EWA · Median fair value 98 Valuation -0.9 Somewhat expensive Fair-value gap -2.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +2.1% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 78% moderate-high
VALUATION LENS
Developed Pacific Equities is somewhat expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 98
P25–P75 90–102
EWA Australia Broad Market
Last 30.03 · 2026-09-02
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0575.0
P1084.0
P2590.0
Median98.0
Mean97.6
P75102.0
P90108.0
P95116.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+6.3%
P10 +2.1% · P25 +3.9% · P75 +7.5% · P90 +9.3%
3Y annualized+5.7%
P10 +0.8% · P25 +2.9% · P75 +7.1% · P90 +9.0%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate63%
Raw observations353
Effective sample44.4
History1996-04-30 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
EWA P/E
21.3 x
Above broad Europe and Japan proxies near 19x
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.18 %
Above the current EWA trailing yield
Fair-value drivers
- Dividend income and exposure to profitable financials and materials support current economic value.
- The model retains upside scenarios for sustained commodity and financial-sector profitability.
Fair-value risks
- Australia's current equity multiple is richer than several other non-U.S. regional benchmarks.
- High global real yields make valuation expansion harder to justify.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside90
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 12%
Base98
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 22%
Upside102
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWAAustralia Broad Market | direct | 30.03 | 98 | -0.9 · Somewhat expensive | +6.3% |
| EWSSingapore Broad Market | proxy | 34.20 | 98 | -0.9 · Somewhat expensive | +6.3% |
| ENZLNew Zealand Broad Market | proxy | 47.90 | 98 | -0.9 · Somewhat expensive | +6.3% |
Method & data quality
Weighted today-equivalent equity scenarios using current valuation/fundamental evidence, peer or historical anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Recent-price history ends 2026-09-01 while current benchmark snapshot is 2026-09-02.; Only 19 valid recent sessions were available.; Upstream conditional calibration was not run because a required historical distribution-yield feature was unavailable; the historical unconditional base rate is preserved when available.
Sources: BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares · BlackRock / iShares
11 US Equities SPY · Median fair value 92 Valuation -1.9 Expensive Fair-value gap -8.0% vs market 100 Expected edge +1.3% vs 1Y Treasury Confidence 90% high
VALUATION LENS
US Equities is expensive
M Market 100
F Fair 92
P25–P75 82–96
SPY US Large-Cap Index
Last 765.16 · 2026-09-02
equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
Fair-value distribution
P0568.0
P1076.0
P2582.0
Median92.0
Mean90.9
P7596.0
P90102.0
P95108.0
Market = 100. Fair-value index is normalized to today's market price and is not a price target.
Forward return range
1 year+5.5%
P10 -1.7% · P25 +1.0% · P75 +7.3% · P90 +10.0%
3Y annualized+4.4%
P10 -1.6% · P25 +0.7% · P75 +5.7% · P90 +7.8%
Expected-return scenarios are separate from today's fair-value estimate.
Historical return context
Long-run Treasury-beat base rate80%
Raw observations392
Effective sample31.1
History1993-01-31 → 2025-08-31
This is the benchmark's unconditional historical base rate, not a probability for today's valuation setup.
Key valuation metrics
Forward 12M P/E
19.6 x
5Y average 19.9x; 10Y average 19.0x
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
30Y median 27.59x; full-history percentile 98.97%
10Y real Treasury yield
2.44 %
99.54th percentile over 10Y structured history
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.18 %
Preferred annual risk-free comparator
Fair-value drivers
- Forward earnings estimates remain unusually strong, partially offsetting valuation pressure.
- Forward P/E is near its recent 5-year average rather than at an outright extreme.
Fair-value risks
- Shiller CAPE is near the extreme upper tail of long-run history.
- High real and nominal Treasury yields raise the discount-rate hurdle for long-duration equities.
Representative fair-value scenarios
Downside82
Downside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 12%
Base92
Base today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 22%
Upside96
Upside today-equivalent fair-value scenario from the equity_fair_value_distribution_v3.0 evidence set.
Model weight 16%
Valuation instruments
Only symbols with actual symbol-level valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
| Symbol | Exposure | Last | Fair value | Valuation | 1Y expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPYUS Large-Cap Index | direct | 765.16 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| QQQUS Technology Index | proxy | 709.24 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| DIAUS Blue-Chip Index | proxy | 530.62 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| IWMUS Small-Cap Index | proxy | 294.01 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| RSPUS Equal-Weight Index | proxy | 218.60 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| XLFUS Financial Sector | proxy | 57.66 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| XLIUS Industrial Sector | proxy | 172.78 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| XLVUS Healthcare Sector | proxy | 172.95 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| XLYUS Consumer Discretionary Sector | proxy | 114.86 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
| SMHUS Semiconductor Sector | proxy | 550.48 | 92 | -1.9 · Expensive | +5.5% |
Method & data quality
Weighted today-equivalent equity scenarios using current valuation/fundamental evidence, peer or historical anchors, and current discount-rate conditions.
Limitations: No publication-grade conditional probability to beat the 1Y Treasury passed the upstream calibration gate; public probability fields remain null.; Shiller trailing earnings are stale by six months; CAPE is current but stale trailing earnings reduce confidence in trailing-multiple context.
Valuation instruments 69
Only instruments with usable valuation outputs are shown. Reference-only context symbols are omitted.
2800.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Index Tracker
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 26.08
Fair 118
Val. +1.6
1Y +11.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
3033.HK
proxy
Hang Seng Technology Index
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 4.532
Fair 118
Val. +1.6
1Y +11.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
3110.HK
proxy
Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 31.16
Fair 118
Val. +1.6
1Y +11.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
ADA-USD
proxy
Cardano
Crypto
Last 0.19790
Fair 110
Val. +0.9
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
ASHR
proxy
China A-Shares
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 33.99
Fair 118
Val. +1.6
1Y +11.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
BNB-USD
proxy
BNB
Crypto
Last 686.45
Fair 110
Val. +0.9
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
BND
direct
US Broad Bond Market
Fixed Income
Last 71.83
Fair 102
Val. +0.6
1Y +5.7%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
BNO
proxy
Brent Crude Oil
Energy
Last 55.74
Fair 108
Val. +1.1
1Y +9.2%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
CHIQ
proxy
China Consumer Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 16.96
Fair 118
Val. +1.6
1Y +11.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
CPER
proxy
Copper
Metals
Last 39.53
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +4.4%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
DBB
proxy
Base Metals
Metals
Last 25.61
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +4.4%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
DIA
proxy
US Blue-Chip Index
US Equities
Last 530.62
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
DXJ
proxy
Japan Hedged Equity
Japan Equities
Last 180.15
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +10.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EMXC
proxy
Emerging Markets Ex-China
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 98.67
Fair 108
Val. +1.2
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
ENZL
proxy
New Zealand Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 47.90
Fair 98
Val. -0.9
1Y +6.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
ETH-USD
direct
Ethereum
Crypto
Last 2,388.32
Fair 110
Val. +0.9
1Y +11.5%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
EWA
direct
Australia Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 30.03
Fair 98
Val. -0.9
1Y +6.3%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
EWG
proxy
Germany Index
Europe Equities
Last 43.52
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +8.9%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWH
proxy
Hong Kong Broad Market
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 22.87
Fair 118
Val. +1.6
1Y +11.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWJ
direct
Japan Broad Market
Japan Equities
Last 96.04
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +10.0%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
EWJV
proxy
Japan Value Equity
Japan Equities
Last 48.46
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +10.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWL
proxy
Switzerland Index
Europe Equities
Last 62.89
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +8.9%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWQ
proxy
France Index
Europe Equities
Last 45.59
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +8.9%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWS
proxy
Singapore Broad Market
Developed Pacific Equities
Last 34.20
Fair 98
Val. -0.9
1Y +6.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWT
proxy
Taiwan Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 109.43
Fair 108
Val. +1.2
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWU
proxy
United Kingdom Index
Europe Equities
Last 48.22
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +8.9%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWY
proxy
South Korea Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 178.86
Fair 108
Val. +1.2
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EWZ
proxy
Brazil Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 38.09
Fair 108
Val. +1.2
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EZA
proxy
South Africa Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 69.99
Fair 108
Val. +1.2
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
EZU
proxy
Eurozone Equity Index
Europe Equities
Last 69.88
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +8.9%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
FXI
direct
China Large-Cap
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 35.54
Fair 118
Val. +1.6
1Y +11.3%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
GDX
proxy
Gold Miners
Metals
Last 97.63
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +4.4%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
GLD
direct
Gold
Metals
Last 402.78
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +4.4%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
HYG
proxy
High-Yield Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 79.11
Fair 102
Val. +0.6
1Y +5.7%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
IEF
proxy
Intermediate US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 92.18
Fair 102
Val. +0.6
1Y +5.7%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
INDA
proxy
India Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 49.97
Fair 108
Val. +1.2
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
IWM
proxy
US Small-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 294.01
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
JPXN
proxy
Japan JPX-Nikkei 400
Japan Equities
Last 102.65
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +10.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
KWEB
proxy
China Internet Sector
China & Hong Kong Equities
Last 25.70
Fair 118
Val. +1.6
1Y +11.3%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
LQD
proxy
Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds
Fixed Income
Last 105.35
Fair 102
Val. +0.6
1Y +5.7%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
PICK
proxy
Global Metals and Mining
Metals
Last 64.88
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +4.4%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
PPLT
proxy
Platinum
Metals
Last 15.98
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +4.4%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
QQQ
proxy
US Technology Index
US Equities
Last 709.24
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
REET
proxy
Global Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 27.33
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
REM
proxy
Mortgage Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 21.62
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
REZ
proxy
Residential and Specialized REITs
Real Estate
Last 93.96
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
RSP
proxy
US Equal-Weight Index
US Equities
Last 218.60
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
SCJ
proxy
Japan Small-Cap Equity
Japan Equities
Last 108.92
Fair 104
Val. +0.5
1Y +10.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
SHY
proxy
Short-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 81.64
Fair 102
Val. +0.6
1Y +5.7%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
SLV
proxy
Silver
Metals
Last 59.07
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +4.4%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
SMH
proxy
US Semiconductor Sector
US Equities
Last 550.48
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
SOL-USD
proxy
Solana
Crypto
Last 99.46
Fair 110
Val. +0.9
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
SPY
direct
US Large-Cap Index
US Equities
Last 765.16
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
SRVR
proxy
Data Center and Digital REITs
Real Estate
Last 30.54
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
TIP
proxy
Inflation-Protected Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 106.86
Fair 102
Val. +0.6
1Y +5.7%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
TLT
proxy
Long-Term US Treasuries
Fixed Income
Last 81.95
Fair 102
Val. +0.6
1Y +5.7%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
UNG
proxy
Natural Gas
Energy
Last 10.75
Fair 108
Val. +1.1
1Y +9.2%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
USO
direct
US Crude Oil
Energy
Last 141.15
Fair 108
Val. +1.1
1Y +9.2%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
VGK
direct
Europe Broad Market
Europe Equities
Last 90.96
Fair 104
Val. +0.4
1Y +8.9%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
VNQ
direct
US Real Estate
Real Estate
Last 95.78
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +7.0%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
VWO
direct
Emerging Markets Broad Index
Emerging Markets Equities
Last 60.77
Fair 108
Val. +1.2
1Y +11.5%
Representative benchmark anchoring the asset-class market price at 100; fair value is modeled from asset-specific economic evidence.
XLE
proxy
US Energy Sector
Energy
Last 65.10
Fair 108
Val. +1.1
1Y +9.2%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
XLF
proxy
US Financial Sector
US Equities
Last 57.66
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
XLI
proxy
US Industrial Sector
US Equities
Last 172.78
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
XLRE
proxy
US Real Estate Sector
Real Estate
Last 43.73
Fair 99
Val. -0.7
1Y +7.0%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
XLV
proxy
US Healthcare Sector
US Equities
Last 172.95
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
XLY
proxy
US Consumer Discretionary Sector
US Equities
Last 114.86
Fair 92
Val. -1.9
1Y +5.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
XOP
proxy
Oil and Gas Producers
Energy
Last 193.16
Fair 108
Val. +1.1
1Y +9.2%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
XRP-USD
proxy
XRP
Crypto
Last 1.347
Fair 110
Val. +0.9
1Y +11.5%
Asset-class fair value is used as a proxy for this supplied symbol; no independent symbol-level fair-value distribution is claimed.
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
China & Hong Kong Equities
FXI · China Large-Cap
VALUATION
+1.6
Cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 118
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 118
P25–P75 110–126
PRICE WHAT-IF · FXI
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$41.94
Central P25–P75: $39.09–$44.78
Current: $35.54
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · FXI
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+18.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+11.3%
P10–P90 +3% to +21%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+7.1%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
56%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
77%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Low current earnings and book-value multiples provide a sizable valuation cushion versus major regional peers.
- The modeled distribution allows higher justified multiples if profitability and growth stabilize.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Low multiples may reflect persistent policy, property, governance and earnings-quality risk rather than pure mispricing.
- A high U.S. Treasury hurdle raises the opportunity cost of accepting equity and currency risk.
FXI P/E
11.2 x
Below Japan, Europe and broad emerging-market peer multiples
FXI P/B
1.37 x
Low book-value multiple versus developed-market peers
FXI trailing yield
1.86 %
Income support, though not a complete valuation anchor
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Emerging Markets Equities
VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index
VALUATION
+1.2
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 108
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 108
P25–P75 94–116
PRICE WHAT-IF · VWO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$65.63
Central P25–P75: $57.12–$70.49
Current: $60.77
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VWO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+8.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+11.5%
P10–P90 +3% to +19%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+7.3%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
64%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
79%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Large valuation dispersion creates meaningful pockets of value, particularly in lower-multiple markets.
- Higher structural growth potential supports a somewhat higher justified multiple than low-growth markets.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The asset class contains expensive technology-heavy markets alongside cheap cyclical markets, widening fair-value uncertainty.
- A 4.18% one-year Treasury hurdle requires a meaningful risk premium from emerging-market equities.
Broad EM P/E proxy
19.7 x
EEM broad emerging-markets multiple
EM ex-China P/E
22.1 x
Higher than the broad EM proxy
India P/E
23.0 x
Premium country valuation
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Energy
USO · US Crude Oil
VALUATION
+1.1
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 108
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 108
P25–P75 96–116
PRICE WHAT-IF · USO
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$152.44
Central P25–P75: $135.50–$163.73
Current: $141.15
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · USO
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+8.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+9.2%
P10–P90 +2% to +16%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+5.0%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
45%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
80%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Producer-equity forward multiples are low relative to expected earnings growth.
- The IEA projects a substantial Q3 oil-market deficit and unusually low observed inventories.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Current oil economics are heavily influenced by geopolitical disruption, so scarcity premiums may reverse quickly.
- The IEA also forecasts 2026 demand contraction, limiting confidence in extrapolating current tightness.
XLE forward P/E
12.9 x
Low forward multiple for the energy-equity sleeve
XLE 3-5Y EPS growth
9.28 %
Consensus holding-level growth estimate
XLE index dividend yield
2.42 %
Income component from producer equities
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Crypto
ETH-USD · Ethereum
VALUATION
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 110
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 110
P25–P75 90–155
PRICE WHAT-IF · ETH-USD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$2,627.15
Central P25–P75: $2,149.49–$3,701.9
Current: $2,388.32
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · ETH-USD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+10.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+11.5%
P10–P90 -14% to +49%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+7.3%
Treasury 4.2%
HISTORICAL CALIBRATION
—
Insufficient decision-grade history
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
65%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Institutional research describes several digital-asset valuation indicators as approaching historically low or value-like conditions.
- Underlying adoption and network activity remain relevant even after a large drawdown in market prices.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Crypto lacks a universally accepted intrinsic-value framework, so fair-value dispersion is intentionally much wider than for contractual cash-flow assets.
- A positive Treasury hurdle and high crypto volatility require a large risk premium for modeled value to be compelling.
BTC aggregate MVRV
1.51 x
Glassnode reading as of Aug. 31; cross-crypto valuation proxy
Institutional valuation signal
—
Fidelity reports several valuation indicators near low/value or capitulation conditions
1Y Treasury hurdle
4.18 %
High hurdle for a non-contractual cash-flow asset
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Fixed Income
BND · US Broad Bond Market
VALUATION
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 102
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 102
P25–P75 100–104
PRICE WHAT-IF · BND
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$73.27
Central P25–P75: $71.83–$74.70
Current: $71.83
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · BND
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+2.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.7%
P10–P90 +4% to +7%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.5%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
65%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
91%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A starting yield near 5% provides a meaningful contractual return anchor and modest spread over the one-year Treasury hurdle.
- Long and real Treasury yields sit near the upper end of recent history, creating upside if rates normalize.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Duration exposes BND to further losses if long yields rise from already elevated levels.
- Tight investment-grade credit spreads limit the cushion from additional spread compression.
BND yield to maturity
5.01 %
Above the 1Y Treasury hurdle of 4.18%
BND 30-day SEC yield
4.67 %
Current standardized income yield
BND duration
5.70 years
Moderate price sensitivity to yield changes
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Japan Equities
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 104
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 96–108
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWJ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$99.88
Central P25–P75: $92.20–$103.72
Current: $96.04
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWJ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+10.0%
P10–P90 +6% to +13%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+5.8%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
57%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
82%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- A relatively high distribution yield and cheaper value/small-cap subsegments support the asset-class fair-value range.
- Broad-market valuation is not extreme relative to developed-market peers.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- The broad EWJ multiple already embeds a meaningful re-rating versus cheaper domestic value segments.
- Higher global discount rates limit how far justified equity multiples can expand.
EWJ P/E
19.4 x
Above Japan value 15.32x and small-cap 17.13x
EWJ P/B
2.08 x
Current broad-market book multiple
EWJ trailing yield
3.80 %
Material income component
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Europe Equities
VGK · Europe Broad Market
VALUATION
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 104
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 94–110
PRICE WHAT-IF · VGK
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$94.60
Central P25–P75: $85.50–$100.06
Current: $90.96
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VGK
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+8.9%
P10–P90 +4% to +13%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+4.7%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
62%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
81%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Regional multiples cluster near 19x, below U.S. cyclically adjusted valuation extremes.
- A higher dividend yield provides part of the expected-return case even without multiple expansion.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Current multiples are not deeply discounted, limiting the margin of safety if earnings growth disappoints.
- Elevated global discount rates constrain justified multiple expansion.
Broad Europe P/E proxy
19.2 x
IEV broad European equity multiple
Eurozone P/E
19.1 x
Close to broad Europe
Germany P/E
18.9 x
Slight discount to broad Europe
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Metals
GLD · Gold
VALUATION
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 104
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 104
P25–P75 92–112
PRICE WHAT-IF · GLD
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$418.89
Central P25–P75: $370.56–$451.11
Current: $402.78
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · GLD
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
+4.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+4.4%
P10–P90 -3% to +11%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+0.2%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
66%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
80%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Central-bank accumulation and renewed ETF inflows provide structural and investment-demand support.
- Mine-supply growth remains modest relative to the scale of strategic demand.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- High real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
- Gold already trades at historically high nominal price levels, increasing sensitivity to demand normalization.
Q2 gold demand
1269.0 tonnes
Total demand including OTC was flat y/y
Q2 central-bank net purchases
289.0 tonnes
Strong official-sector demand
July gold ETF inflows
3.00 USD bn
Reversal of two months of outflows
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Real Estate
VNQ · US Real Estate
VALUATION
-0.7
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 99
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 99
P25–P75 96–103
PRICE WHAT-IF · VNQ
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$94.82
Central P25–P75: $91.95–$98.65
Current: $95.78
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · VNQ
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-1.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+7.0%
P10–P90 +2% to +10%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.8%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
68%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
70%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Positive broad REIT earnings growth supports cash-flow resilience.
- Income remains a meaningful component of total-return economics.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- A 4.79% ten-year Treasury yield raises financing costs and the required cap-rate or earnings yield for REITs.
- Direct AFFO, NAV-discount and cap-rate data were not available in the structured feed, so fair-value precision is intentionally limited.
VNQ earnings growth
6.77 %
Broad fund fundamental growth proxy
VNQ P/B
2.60 x
Broad real-estate book-value proxy
VNQ P/E
32.2 x
Secondary metric only; not the primary REIT valuation measure
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
Developed Pacific Equities
EWA · Australia Broad Market
VALUATION
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 98
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 98
P25–P75 90–102
PRICE WHAT-IF · EWA
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$29.43
Central P25–P75: $27.03–$30.63
Current: $30.03
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · EWA
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped. Partial recent history.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-2.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+6.3%
P10–P90 +2% to +9%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+2.1%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
63%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
78%
moderate-high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Dividend income and exposure to profitable financials and materials support current economic value.
- The model retains upside scenarios for sustained commodity and financial-sector profitability.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Australia's current equity multiple is richer than several other non-U.S. regional benchmarks.
- High global real yields make valuation expansion harder to justify.
EWA P/E
21.3 x
Above broad Europe and Japan proxies near 19x
EWA P/B
2.74 x
Current Australia book-value multiple
EWA trailing yield
2.89 %
Provides income offset to valuation risk
×
VALUATION INTELLIGENCE
US Equities
SPY · US Large-Cap Index
VALUATION
-1.9
Expensive
MODELED FAIR VALUE TODAY
Market = 100 · Median fair value = 92
Given today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, valuation relationships, interest rates, and other asset-specific economics, this chart shows the range of defensible current economic values — not a future-price forecast.
M Market
F Median fair value
P25–P75 central range
M Market 100
F Fair 92
P25–P75 82–96
PRICE WHAT-IF · SPY
What would valuation look like at a different market price?
Holds today’s fundamentals, growth expectations, rates, and fair-value distribution constant. It changes price only; it does not model why price changed.
MODELED MEDIAN FAIR VALUE TODAY
$703.95
Central P25–P75: $627.43–$734.55
Current: $765.16
WHAT-IF VALUATION——
PRICE INDEX—Current market = 100
FAIR-VALUE GAP—To median fair value
PRICE PERCENTILE—Within fair-value distribution
RECENT PRICE CONTEXT · SPY
Recent Price Path vs Today’s Fair-Value Range
Latest 10 trading sessions of raw daily prices. Trading sessions are shown consecutively, so non-trading days are skipped.
Close price
Daily close point
Daily high-low range
Current P25–P75 fair range
Current P10–P90 fair range
Today’s median fair value
What-If price
Vertical scale = actual benchmark price.
Fair-value bands are today’s modeled values held constant across the historical dates; they are not historical fair-value estimates.
FAIR-VALUE GAP
-8.0%
Median fair value vs market
1Y EXPECTED RETURN
+5.5%
P10–P90 -2% to +10%
EDGE VS 1Y TREASURY
+1.3%
Treasury 4.2%
LONG-RUN BEAT RATE
80%
Historical base rate · not today's conditional probability
VALUATION CONFIDENCE
90%
high
WHAT SUPPORTS FAIR VALUE
- Forward earnings estimates remain unusually strong, partially offsetting valuation pressure.
- Forward P/E is near its recent 5-year average rather than at an outright extreme.
WHAT COULD BREAK THE THESIS
- Shiller CAPE is near the extreme upper tail of long-run history.
- High real and nominal Treasury yields raise the discount-rate hurdle for long-duration equities.
Forward 12M P/E
19.6 x
5Y average 19.9x; 10Y average 19.0x
Shiller CAPE
41.2 x
30Y median 27.59x; full-history percentile 98.97%
10Y real Treasury yield
2.44 %
99.54th percentile over 10Y structured history
Valuation score
Where current market price (100) sits within the modeled fair-value distribution. Positive = cheaper; negative = more expensive.
Fair-value gap
Median modeled fair value relative to today’s price. It is not an expected return or a timing forecast.
1Y expected return
A separate forward return scenario distribution that can differ materially from the fair-value gap.
Expected edge vs Treasury
Modeled 1Y expected return minus the current 1Y Treasury benchmark. Positive values indicate modeled return above the benchmark.
Historical probability
When available, this is the calibrated share of comparable historical starting regimes that beat the contemporaneous 1Y Treasury benchmark. Long-run base rates are not substituted for it.
Valuation confidence
Evidence-strength score displayed as a percentage for readability. It is not a probability that the valuation is correct.
Sources & methodology references 23
Tier 1 · 99%
International Energy Agency · 2026-08-12T04:00:00-04:00