China & Hong Kong Equities

September 2, 2026Data cutoff Sep 2, 2026, 5:55 PM EDTintraday

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Modeled fair value

FXI · China Large-Cap

+1.6Cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 23.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 77% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Median fair value: 118.0
Upside to median: +18.0%
Last close: $35.54
Confidence: moderate-high

Modeled returns

Return distributions, not point forecasts

Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.

One year

modeled

P90: +20.9%
P75: +13.7%
Median: +11.3%
P25: +8.9%
P10: +2.9%

95% of modeled scenarios end positive.

Scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with partial convergence toward today's fair-value distribution; not a calibrated probability model.

Three years, annualised

modeled

P90: +21.4%
P75: +14.9%
Median: +12.6%
P25: +10.1%
P10: +3.4%

Annualized scenario model combining sustainable growth/carry with three-year convergence toward today's fair-value distribution.

Against the Treasury hurdle

1y Treasury: 4.18%
Expected excess: +7.1%
Basis: direct

The one-year expected edge is the modeled median return minus the current DGS1 investment-basis hurdle; it is not guaranteed excess return.

Instruments

8 in this asset class

Symbol	Valuation	Fair value	Last close	1y modeled
FXI China Large-Cap	+1.6Cheap	118.0	$35.54	+11.3%
KWEB China Internet Sector	+1.6Cheap	118.0	$25.70	+11.3%
ASHR China A-Shares	+1.6Cheap	118.0	$33.99	+11.3%
CHIQ China Consumer Sector	+1.6Cheap	118.0	$16.96	+11.3%
EWH Hong Kong Broad Market	+1.6Cheap	118.0	$22.87	+11.3%
2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker	+1.6Cheap	118.0	$26.08	+11.3%
3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index	+1.6Cheap	118.0	$4.53	+11.3%
3110.HK Hong Kong High-Dividend Equity	+1.6Cheap	118.0	$31.16	+11.3%